2024 Home Run Derby Best Bets

Happy Monday, baseball lovers. We have reached the MLB Midsummer Classic, the 2024 All-Star Game. This year we’re heading to Arlington, and below we’ll focus on Monday’s Home Run Derby. This year’s field is full of new stars and powerful veterans.

Home Run Derby Participants

(Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook.)

Pete Alonso (+300)
Bobby Witt Jr. (+400)
Teoscar Hernandez (+1200)
Gunnar Henderson (+425)
Marcell Ozuna (+450)
Jose Ramirez (+1400)
Alec Bohm (+1800)

Derby Picks

Bobby Witt Jr./Gunnar Henderson

Recent data has shown that bat speed may be the most important metric to track for an edge in Home Run Derby bets. Two of the top three players in bat speed in Monday’s derby are Gunnar Henderson (first) and Bobby Witt Jr. (third). Though the rising stars are both competing in the Derby for the first time, I believe their power and speed give them great value from a betting aspect. Henderson ranks in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate this season and in the 96th percentile in bat speed. Witt ranks in the 91st percentile in hard-hit rate and the 87th percentile in bat speed. Here’s how I’m backing the young guns:

Home Run Derby Best Bets

• Bobby Witt Jr. over 21.5 first-round home runs (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Gunnar Henderson over 21.5 first-round home runs (-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Bobby Witt Jr. to make the finals (+186, FanDuel Sportsbook)
• Gunnar Henderson to make the finals (+185, DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Length of longest home run over 479.5 feet (-129, BetRivers)