Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to PrizePicks, NFL edition. Today, we’ll be taking a look at some quarterback projections for the upcoming 2021 NFL season.
How to play PrizePicks NFL “Single Stat”
If you’re new to PrizePicks in general, checkout the PrizePicks App Review by FTN’s Tyler Loechner. In terms of how it works for NFL Single Stat, each player is given a projection for their season total. At the moment, PrizePicks is just offering quarterback projections on passing yards and passing touchdowns. When looking at these numbers, it'll be important to remember that the 2021 season will feature 17 games as opposed to 16. So if some of the projections seem a bit higher, that would be the reason. You have to parlay at least two picks with at least one over, and one under in order to submit. The payouts are as follows:
- Two-pick Power Play pays 3x (max entry: $400)
- Three-pick Power Play pays 5x (max entry: $200)
- Four-pick Power Play pays 10x (max entry: $100)
There is also a “Flex Play” option, in which you don’t have to get every pick correct, but the payout is slightly less.
PrizePicks NFL single stat: Quarterbacks
At first glance, there are just 26 quarterbacks that have projections on PrizePicks. The six teams that do not feature a quarterback with projections are the Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers. Outside of the Rams, each team has questions at the quarterback position, which is why nothing is offered.
Here’s a look at my favorite NFL single stat PrizePicks for the 2021 season:
Matt Ryan OVER 4,300 yards passing
Since 2012, Ryan has only had fewer than 4,300 passing yards in a season once (2017). He arguably has the best wide receiver duo in the league. The Falcons also spent the fourth overall pick in the NFL draft on tight end Kyle Pitts, giving Ryan yet another weapon. With an underwhelming running back room, we should expect this offense to remain pass-heavy. Give me the over.
Joe Burrow OVER 4,100 passing yards
Prior to his season-ending injury in Week 11 last year, Burrow was on pace to throw for over 4,500 yards. If you stretch this out over the course of 17 games, we’re looking at just over 4,800. This projection of 4,100 yards for Burrow seems extremely low considering what he was able to do in his rookie season. Through 11 weeks of the 2020 season, Burrow ranked third in the league in total air yards.
Now you throw his former college teammate and favorite target, Ja’Marr Chase, into the mix. The Bengals used the fifth overall pick on Chase, adding him to an already-loaded wide receiver room. The injury is a concern, sure, but Burrow remains on pace to be the Week 1 starter when the Bengals host the Vikings.
Jameis Winston UNDER 3,800 passing yards
For whatever reason, PrizePicks did not leave the New Orleans Saints quarterback situation out for these projections. As I mentioned above, there were six teams that did not have odds offered, mostly due to some type of quarterback controversy. Of the 26 quarterbacks we have to choose from, it’s safe to say Winston has the least secure job. So let's take advantage.
Following the retirement of Drew Brees, the Saints will enter the 2021 season with an open competition between Winston and Taysom Hill. Even if Winston does come away with the job, it doesn’t mean he’ll get every snap under center. We’ve been proven time and time again that Hill will have a role in this offense. There will be packages that include him as the only quarterback on the field, and he’ll also mix in at fullback or tight end. Needless to say, Sean Payton is a huge Hill guy and that won’t change. The Saints offense is headed in a different direction, as they threw for just under 3,800 total yards as a team in 2020. Now we get that same number as a projection for Winston. Under is the play here.
Sam Darnold OVER 19.5 passing touchdowns
When it comes to passing touchdowns, Darnold has the lowest projection of the bunch. The Carolina Panthers are officially all in on Darnold heading into the 2021 season after passing up a quarterback with the eighth pick in the NFL draft. A change of scenery couldn’t have come at a better time for the 23-year-old quarterback.
Darnold is now surrounded by more weapons than he’ll know what to do with. In his time with the Jets, he never had near this type of talent at the skill positions. The Panthers have one of the most exciting wide receiver trios in the league with D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. Add Christian McCaffrey to the picture, who scored four or more receiving touchdowns in each of his first three seasons. Newly acquired tight end Dan Arnold will serve as a nice red zone target for Darnold. He caught three of his four touchdowns in 2020 inside the 10-yard line. It’ll be tough not to get these two names twisted, but Darnold to Arnold has a nice ring to it. A touchdown total of just 19.5 in 17 games is not a huge ask.
Be sure to check PrizePicks out, and use these picks (or your own) to win. Learn more about PrizePicks here. As always, feel free to reach out to me with any questions you might have regarding PrizePicks.
