Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With baseball officially back and players already reporting for spring training (or summer camp), the process of finding your fantasy baseball edge for the unique 60-game season begins.
Whether it be a 162-game season or a 60, sleepers are always a means to get yourself an edge on the competition. Given the unique circumstances we find ourselves in, the emphasis on what to target in sleepers changes. With fewer at bats on the table, targeting the most possible production per plate appearance becomes vital. Late-round power, players that could see an increased number of at-bats with the universal DH, and high-strikeout players are all ones to target late in drafts.
Below are seven sleepers who are worth targeting late in your drafts ahead of Opening Day later this month along with their current Sprint – Rotowire Online Championship ADPs, as there were eight drafts over the holiday weekend. This gives us a more accurate grasp of ADPs with the updated season parameters.
Kenta Maeda, P, Minnesota Twins
Rotowire OC ADP: P61, 151.88 overall
With the shortened season, Maeda may be the biggest beneficiary in baseball. Without the rotation depth that the Dodgers possess, the Twins will be forced to use him as a full-time starter in what is arguably the weakest new division in baseball when it comes to lineups.
Maeda has posted a strikeout rate above 27% for two consecutive seasons with swinging strike rates above 14% and was able to keep his hard-contact percentage at a low 32.5% in 2019. With the security of being a full-time starter with elite strikeout upside, his current ADP as the 61st pitcher off the board is a massive value on draft day.
Andrew Heaney, P, Los Angeles Angels
Rotowire OC ADP: P78, 204.75 overall
The major question surrounding pitchers in 2020 is how well they’ll be able to produce in a limited amount of starts. Luckily for Heaney, that answer is rather simple. He only started 18 games in 2019 (95.1 innings) due to multiple IL stints, but his strikeout numbers and advanced metrics show that he could be in for a dominant 2020.
He topped 11.0 K/9 for the second time in his career (first was 2017), posting a career-best 28.8% strikeout rate. He was the victim of some bad luck, as his BABIP of .312 ballooned his ERA to 4.91, his worst in a season with at least 18 starts. If he’s able to get his BABIP back down to league average at or around .300, he should be able to get his ERA closer to where his SIERA was in 2019, at 3.87.
Eric Thames, 1B, Washington Nationals
Rotowire OC ADP: 1B31, 345.5 overall
With Ryan Zimmerman bowing out of the 2020 season and with a universal DH, more at bats should open up for the power-hitting lefty Thames. While he had a down 2018 season with a .219 average, he bounced back to his usual self in 2019, batting .247 in 459 plate appearances (most since 2017), posting an ISO over .250 for the third straight season.
Thames is an all-or-nothing player at the plate (as seen by his strikeout rate of 29% or higher over the last four seasons), but in a shortened season, you want to put an emphasis on players that have higher potential to produce as much as possible in any given at-bat. With his elite ISO, .350 or higher wOBA in two of the last three seasons and cheap price tag, Thames feels like a low-risk, high-reward sleeper late in drafts.
Yandy Díaz, 1B/3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Rotowire OC ADP: 1B27, 292.5 overall
Diaz was only able to play 79 games in 2019 due to a fractured foot, but his production in limited time should give fantasy players a ton of optimism headed into a shortened 2020. He sported a hard-contact rate of over 40% (42.4%) and a .208 ISO en route to 14 home runs in only 347 plate appearances.
On top of the raw power, he was able to keep his strikeout rate under 20% while posting a walk rate over 10%. If he can maintain this level of power and discipline at the plate, he should shatter his current ADP as a regular starter at the corner infield positions.
Jorge Polanco, SS, Minnesota Twins
Rotowire OC ADP: SS19, 176.13 overall
Polanco is not a traditional late-round sleeper, but relative to his current ADP as the 19th shortstop, he’s a massive value on draft day. Polanco had a career year in 2019, batting 0.295 with 22 home runs, 107 runs scored, 79 RBIs — all career-highs. He was able to keep his strikeout rate low (16.5%) and post career-highs in wOBA (.356) and ISO (.190), all while producing an elite 44.4% fly-ball rate.
Stuck in the heart of a potent batting order, Polanco should maintain the everyday role at shortstop and continue to see ample opportunity to produce at the plate. Consider his current ADP of SS19 a massive value in the 13th-15th round.
Willie Calhoun, OF, Texas Rangers
Rotowire OC ADP: OF43, 175.5 overall
While he only appeared in 85 games in 2019, Calhoun demonstrated how productive he can be in abbreviated playing time. Over those 85 games, Calhoun slugged 21 home runs and knocked in 48 runs, results of his elite .351 wOBA and .256 ISO. Much like other batters mentioned above, he’s extremely disciplined at the plate, posting a strikeout rate of 15.7% with an on-base percentage of over .320.
While the Rangers outfield might be crowded, the DH helps his case of receiving regular playing time after an extremely productive season and much like Thames, given his power at his cheap price tag, there’s not much risk in chasing the immense amount of reward Calhoun can offer.
Aristides Aquino, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Rotowire OC ADP: OF81, 339.38 overall
If you’re looking for a deep sleeper who has an outside shot at making a huge impact, Aquino might be an answer. He’s not on the initial 30-man roster that was invited to Great American Ballpark, but he seems to be the first that would get the nod if a Reds player tests positive for coronavirus, as he may be the only player of the Prasco Park participants who has a shot at the 40-man roster in summer camp.
He came scorching onto the scene in August of 2019, blasting 14 home runs in his first 29 games with a .320 batting average, .460 wOBA and .447 ISO. That was obviously unsustainable, and he fell back to earth over his final 27 games, posting only five more home runs while struggling with a .196 batting average.
Aquino is the definition of a boom-or-bust player at the plate, but in a 60-game season, you may only need one great month like his August 2019 to warrant consideration on draft day. The universal DH may be his golden ticket to consistent playing time, giving him the upside to crank out another 15-20 homers and potentially even flirt with the home run crown if he stays hot.
All you need in a 60-game season is one scorching month to return mid-to-late round value and Aquino has shown the ability to do just that.
