Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Identifying trends in terms of ADP is vital in putting together a winning fantasy baseball team, but when it comes to a situation as MLB finds itself in, it carries much more weight.
With a shortened 60-game season and a universal DH, many players will see their stocks shoot up or plummet. A lot of the players are also ones that would be some of the most valuable picks if this were a traditional 162-game format.
Given the unusual circumstances, below is a group of players that should see a spike or a drop in their value (and ADP) thanks to the pandemic-affected season.
ADP info is based off of Sprint – Rotowire Online Championship drafts. There were eight drafts over the holiday weekend, giving us a better gauge of how the current state of baseball affects a player’s draft stock.
Risers
Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B, Washington Nationals
Rotowire OC ADP: 1B22, 257.63 overall
With Ryan Zimmerman opting out of the 2020 season, Kendrick immediately becomes a primary beneficiary of the unusual season, as he should see the majority of the playing time at first base.
Before the pandemic, Kendrick was sporting a consensus draft position of 369.5, seeing that jump to 257.63 overall over the last weekend in the online championship drafts. The dramatic jump is surely warranted after a phenomenal 2019, as he posted career-bests in wOBA (.400), ISO (.228), strikeout rate (13.2%) and batting average (.344). With the path to an everyday role cleared, expect his draft-day price to continue to climb.
Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Rotowire OC ADP: OF57, 221.38 overall
There may not be another player who stands to benefit from the universal DH more than Braun this season. With a crowded outfield in Milwaukee (Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Avisaíl García, Ben Gamel), the aging Braun would have been in a battle for playing time if not for the new rule.
Now, without having to exhaust energy on defense, Braun has the opportunity to make an everyday impact with his bat. While not the player he was earlier in his career, Braun has still posted an ISO over .210 every season since 2014 and his .354 wOBA in 2019 was his highest mark since 2016. His ADP has gone up 26 spots in the online championship drafts compared to the consensus before the restart, but he still clocks in as a great value for outfield depth.
Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Rotowire OC ADP: OF92, 341.48 overall
Much like Braun, Winker should be his team’s biggest beneficiary of the universal DH given his role in a crowded outfield. Winker has established himself as a respectable hitter at the plate over the last three seasons, topping a .350 wOBA every season while topping a .200 ISO in two of the last three.
Playing a part-time role as a platoon hitter against lefties in 2019, Winker should now see a likely guaranteed role whenever a lefty is on the mound, as well as additional at-bats in the DH spot against right-handed pitchers. If that’s the case, his late-draft ADP is still a massive value, as any extra at-bats in Great American Ball Park (top-10 in HR park factor in 2019) are a nice boost to a player’s value.
Josh Hader, RP, Milwaukee Brewers
Rotowire OC ADP: P14, 45.63 overall
With the shortened season, every game and every inning become much more vital when it comes to contending for the postseason. With that being the case, there’s a high likelihood teams will deploy their best bullpen arms earlier and often. This is where flamethrower Hader comes in, as he could very well be positioned as a seventh- or eighth-inning reliever with the potential return of closer Corey Knebel.
If this becomes the case, Hader could see twice as much per-game work as he’s accustomed to, mitigating part of the downside in a shortened season. This would be a huge boost considering he’s topped a 45% strikeout rate in back-to-back season and drafters have started to pick up on the potential, as his ADP has jumped over 15 spots from consensus drafts before the lockdown.
Fallers
Yuli Gurriel, 1B/3B, Houston Astros
Rotowire OC ADP: 1B16, 174.00 overall
Gurriel’s ADP has been falling in the initial online championship drafts, but it may be a result of him initially being overvalued as opposed to him seeing a dip from the adjusted season.
In 2019, Gurriel posted career-bests in wOBA (.364), ISO (.243), home runs (31) and RBIs (104). While these are phenomenal numbers, especially for a mid-tier infielder, it’s hard to rely on them continuing, based on his three seasons prior. Before 2019, Gurriel had not topped 18 home runs or 85 RBIs in a season, making it much more realistic that his range of outcomes in 2020 will fall somewhere between his previous seasons and his 2019 results.
Initially overvalued weighing his 2019 production, his ADP has since fallen back down to earth a bit to account for likely regression.
Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Rotowire OC ADP: OF3, 4.00 overall
Nobody thought Trout would be arguably the riskiest pick in 2020 fantasy baseball drafts, but here we are. The issue is not production, it’s the number of games that will be played. Trout’s wife is due with their baby in mid-August, which falls right in the middle of the shortened season.
Given the fact that Trout is likely to take a week (or more) off, he may miss at least 10% of the season. In such a short season, those 6-10 games can be crucial in terms of outproducing the other elite talents like Christian Yelich and Ronald Acuña, making it hard to trust him as the traditional No. 1 overall option.
Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees
Rotowire OC ADP: OF18, 71.00 overall
Much like Trout, Judge’s ADP is starting to fall for reasons outside of statistical production. He’s missed major chunks of time over the past two seasons, failing to play more than 112 games in either year. Now, heading into 2020, he’s nursing a rib injury that had drafters initially skeptical at the beginning of the year when drafts were operating as normal.
Fast forward to the shortened season and there’s still not 100% certainty that he’ll be ready for Opening Day. The latest report (from teammate Gerrit Cole, so take it with a grain of salt), is that Judge is swinging a bat without any pain. While this can instill confidence in his availability, it’s still hard to trust that he’ll stay healthy enough for 60 games to return early-round value, resulting in his ADP dropping to the sixth or seventh round.
Dallas Keuchel, SP, Chicago White Sox
Rotowire OC ADP: P123, 298.00 overall
When targeting pitching in the shortened season, much more emphasis will be put on high-upside options with elite strikeout potential — words that don’t describe Keuchel.
Over the last two seasons, Keuchel has seen his strikeout rate drop below 20%, while his HR/9 ballooned to 1.28 last season and his 1.37 WHIP was his worst since 2013. He saw 112.2 innings over 19 starts last season, averaging under 6.0 innings per start, which also takes away both quality start potential.
While he was once a front-end option in rotations with the ability to go deep in ball games and record high-strikeout totals, that upside has virtually vanished, capping his ceiling and ultimately, destroying his value on draft day.
