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Injuries are an unfortunate part of both real life and fantasy football. But in our game, they can create opportunities to find value in your fantasy drafts. When players get hurt, fantasy drafters often avoid them the following year, which can be a mistake. Let’s take a look at some of the top potential injury discounts for 2025 fantasy drafts.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
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Walker is without a doubt one of the most explosive runners in the league, but calf and ankle injuries limited him to 12 games in 2023. If drafters are worried about that, along with the presence of Zach Charbonnet, feel free to take advantage in 2025. For starters, in the games where Walker played last season, he accounted for 75% of the non-quarterback rushing attempts, as well as 38.8% of the overall touches. Charbonnet, meanwhile, was at 18.7% and 14.7%, respectively. Walker is the clear lead running back in Seattle and has a more friendly scheme headed his way.
Seattle hired Klint Kubiak as the team’s offensive coordinator this winter, and Kubiak has already spoken highly about Walker’s prospects in this offense. “Well I think Ken (Walker) can fit in just about any style,” Kubiak said. “He’s a talented player so I’m really excited about him in this zone scheme. But I’ve seen Ken in all schemes play really good football.” Kubiak brings over an outside zone scheme, which could be a welcomed sight for Walker and company.
According to the FTN Advanced Statshub, the Seahawks utilized outside zone just 14.1% of the time in 2024, which ranked 24th in football. The Saints, meanwhile, ranked second in outside zone rate under Kubiak at 34.7%. A one cut and go style might benefit Walker, who tends to dance around and look for the home run too often. But what could really elevate Walker is if Seattle’s run-blocking finally improves. Last year, nearly 22% of Walker’s runs were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, the ninth-highest rate in football. With a career-high 46 catches already under his belt, an improved scheme could be all it takes for Walker to post a top-seven fantasy season.
2024 Outside Zone Leaders | ||
---|---|---|
Team | OZ% | Rank |
Atlanta Falcons | 51.5% | 1st |
New Orleans Saints | 34.7% | 2nd |
San Francisco 49ers | 34.6% | 3rd |
Detroit Lions | 34.5% | 4th |
Houston Texans | 34.1% | 5th |
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
If Pacheco didn’t break his leg in Week 2, I truly believe we would have been looking at a potential top-five fantasy running back. During the first two weeks of last season, Pacheco was averaging 20.5 touches and nearly four receptions per game, while logging about 40% of Kansas City’s third downs. That’s a step forward from his early career pass-game usage. During his first two seasons, Pacheco logged 11% of the long down and distance snaps, as well as just 21% of the snaps in the two-minute drill. Back in 2023, Pacheco had just four receptions on third down all year long, which ranked 35th among running backs. With third-down running back Jerick McKinnon gone this past season, I was excited about a potential uptick in receptions for Pacheco, which appeared to be on the horizon until a broken fibula kept him sidelined for 10 weeks. And when he returned, he was very limited, averaging just 8.8 touches per game from Week 13 on (including the playoffs). Kareem Hunt filled in admirably, but this run game lacked any explosiveness without Pacheco. Heading into 2025, expect him to get his usual role back, plus more work in the pass game.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Olave and the Saints offense looked like they were off to huge seasons until injuries destroyed this team. In particular, Olave once again dealt with concussions, limiting him to just eight games in 2024. Heading into 2025, Olave could be a prime bounce-back candidate, especially with Kellen Moore coming in to call plays. Over the last few seasons, we have seen the slot wide receiver play a pivotal role in Moore’s offenses, and I think we could see Olave move to the slot a lot more this season. Olave was in the slot just under 30% of the time last season, while we saw an uptick in slot usage for DeVonta Smith in Moore’s offense in Philadelphia, jumping from 31% in 2023 to 55% this past season.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Pearsall obviously missed the start of his rookie season and couldn’t carve out much of a role until late in the year. In Weeks 17 and 18, Pearsall finished as the WR7 and WR14 in fantasy football, seeing 18 targets and two rushing attempts during that span. Pearsall should be plenty involved during his sophomore season, as Deebo Samuel Sr. is likely going to be traded or released, while Brandon Aiyuk is coming off a torn ACL and MCL. Pearsall will obviously be drafted earlier than he was as a rookie, though it may not be high enough.