Preakness Stakes 2025: Betting Picks

The 150th running of the Preakness Stakes is set for this Saturday, offering another exciting opportunity for bettors. Two weeks ago, Sovereignty clinched victory in the Kentucky Derby, overtaking favorite Journalism in the final stretch. However, Sovereignty will not compete in the Preakness, as his connections have opted to rest him for the Belmont Stakes.

With Sovereignty absent, Journalism, the Derby runner-up, enters as the 8-5 morning-line favorite. The nine-horse field also features strong contenders like Sandman, River Thames and Clever Again. Let’s delve into the historical trends of the Preakness and assemble some strategic Preakness Stakes betting picks. And if betting is your thing, make sure you check out our suite of betting tools including our betting models for the NBA Playoffs.

Betting the Preakness Stakes: Trends to Watch

Derby Runners-Up Struggle at Pimlico

Everyone focuses on the Kentucky Derby winner, but the Derby runner-up has rarely followed up with a win in the Preakness. From 1961 to 2024, only three have pulled it off: Summer Squall in 1990, Prairie Bayou in 1993 and Exaggerator in 2016. History isn’t kind to second-place finishers heading into Baltimore.

Skipping the Derby Has Been a Winning Move

Six of the last eight Preakness winners didn’t run in the Derby, including the last five in a row. Sitting out the chaos at Churchill has turned into a real edge for fresh horses coming in with rest and purpose.

Trainer Trends to Know

Bob Baffert leads the way with eight career Preakness wins, most recently in 2023 with National Treasure. D. Wayne Lukas is right behind him with seven, including last year’s win with Seize the Grey. On the flip side, Todd Pletcher has never won the race despite multiple chances.

Jockeys Who Ride Well at Pimlico

Flavien Prat has one win from two Preakness mounts. That’s a small sample, but a 50% strike rate still grabs attention. John Velazquez has one win and three other in-the-money finishes across seven starts.

Don’t Rely on the Favorite

Only two favorites have won the Preakness in the last 10 years. Recent longshots include Seize the Grey at 9.80-1 in 2024 and Cloud Computing at 13.40-1 in 2017. Betting value has consistently shown up beyond the top of the board.

With these key trends in place, let’s now take a look at the nine-horse field along with the jockey and trainer for each horse.

2025 Preakness Stakes Field Overview

1. Goal Oriented (6-1)

• Jockey: Flavien Prat
• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• Running Style: Front-runner
• Notes: Undefeated in two starts, including a recent win at Churchill Downs. Baffert seeks a record-extending ninth Preakness victory.

2. Journalism (8-5, Favorite)

• Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
• Trainer: Michael McCarthy
• Running Style: Stalker
• Notes: Runner-up in the Kentucky Derby; previously won the Santa Anita Derby. McCarthy trained 2021 Preakness winner Rombauer.

3. American Promise (15-1)

• Jockey: Nik Juarez
• Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
• Running Style: Mid-pack runner
• Notes: Finished 16th in the Kentucky Derby. Lukas aims for his eighth Preakness win, which would tie the record.

4. Heart of Honor (12-1)

• Jockey: Saffie Osborne
• Trainer: Jamie Osborne
• Running Style: Closer
• Notes: International contender with a second-place finish in the UAE Derby. Saffie Osborne is the first female jockey to win at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai.

5. Pay Billy (20-1)

• Jockey: Raul Mena
• Trainer: Michael Gorham
• Running Style: Front-runner
• Notes: Earned a Preakness berth by winning the Federico Tesio Stakes. This marks Gorham’s first Preakness starter.

6. River Thames (9-2)

• Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Running Style: Stalker
• Notes: Skipped the Kentucky Derby after a third-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes. Pletcher seeks his first Preakness win.

7. Sandman (4-1)

• Jockey: John Velazquez
• Trainer: Mark Casse
• Running Style: Closer
• Notes: Won the Arkansas Derby; finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby. Casse previously won the Preakness in 2019.

8. Clever Again (5-1)

• Jockey: Jose Ortiz
• Trainer: Steve Asmussen
• Running Style: Front-runner
• Notes: Lightly raced colt with two wins, including the Hot Springs Stakes. Asmussen has two prior Preakness victories.

9. Gosger (20-1)

• Jockey: Luis Saez
• Trainer: Brendan Walsh
• Running Style: Mid-pack runner
• Notes: Won the Lexington Stakes in April. Walsh aims for his first Preakness win.

Weather Concerns?

Rain played a decisive role in last year’s Preakness outcome, and weather could once again shape this year’s running. Saturday’s forecast for Baltimore calls for a high of 88 degrees with sun early, but afternoon thunderstorms are in play. Flash downpours and gusty winds are possible, which would turn the Pimlico dirt into a mess.

The 2024 edition showed how quickly the race complexion can change in the slop. Seize the Grey wired the field on a muddy, sealed surface, cashing at 9.80-1. The front-runner handled the off going with ease while others never fired. It was a reminder that wet-track pedigree and early speed can be critical.

Given the uncertainty in the forecast, we’re looking at both scenarios. Let’s analyze how the race could unfold on a fast track and how it might shift if conditions deteriorate. From there, we’ll build betting strategies tailored to each outcome. To help us in this process, let’s have some fun. We’re going to run 10,000 simulations of the race for each of the two weather conditions and use these simulations to establish the most likely race flow. Let’s start with a fast track.

Preakness Stakes Race Flow & Likely Scenario on a Fast Track

Expect a controlled but honest early tempo with two clear pace players going forward. Goal Oriented breaks from the rail and will almost certainly be sent by Baffert. He’s 2-for-2 and has wired both fields. Clever Again is quick from the outside and should press the pace, though there’s a chance he may not be fully sent given the stretch-out in distance and expected class test. Gosger has tactical speed and likely lands in third or fourth early. River Thames, drawn in post 6, has been effective as a presser and figures to slot in right behind the lead group. The opening quarter projects in the 23.3 to 23.4 range, fast enough to test stamina but not suicidal.

Down the backstretch, Goal Oriented and Clever Again continue to show the way, but River Thames is traveling best of the front group, tucked in behind them and waiting for his cue. Journalism is reserved early, asked to bide his time behind the top four. The short rest may delay his move, making him less aggressive than in the Derby. Sandman trails but stays in contact. Pay Billy and Heart of Honor are sitting midpack, comfortable in sixth or seventh and saving ground.

The far turn is where things tighten. River Thames is the first to go, tipping out 2-3 wide and moving with purpose. Goal Oriented digs in along the rail while Clever Again begins to give way. Journalism starts to grind into contention, but it’s a steady gain rather than a burst. Sandman begins rolling outside, picking off tiring rivals. Heart of Honor follows him and starts making up ground between horses.

By the time they hit the top of the stretch, River Thames has taken command with a measured push and looks full of run. Goal Oriented is still fighting but beginning to empty out. Journalism is trying to stay on but lacks the punch he had two weeks ago. Sandman is closing from the outside, trying to reel in the top pair. Heart of Honor is threading through traffic but never really threatening for the win.

River Thames looks like the most likely winner, working out a perfect stalking trip and finishing the best of the group. Goal Oriented holds for second with a gutsy front-end try. Sandman closes well to grab third and just misses the runner-up spot. Journalism runs evenly and settles for fourth, his Derby effort still in his legs. Heart of Honor picks up the pieces late and rounds out the top five.

Among those likely to fade are Clever Again, who gets cooked pressing the pace and doesn’t see out the trip. American Promise fails to respond around the far turn. Pay Billy is outrun when the running starts. Gosger tries to stay close early but fades under pressure.

Overall, the simulations suggest River Thames makes a mid-race move, takes the lead on the turn, and finishes strong. He’s the top win candidate. Goal Oriented controls the pace and holds well. He offers the best chance at a wire-to-wire win and is a reliable exacta anchor. Sandman makes a classic closer move with a big late rally that puts him right in the trifecta mix. Journalism runs evenly throughout. He never threatens to win but can hold for a minor share.

Preakness Stakes Betting Strategy for a Fast Track

As the simulations show us, we’re going to try to beat the favorite in this one. Sure, River Thames isn’t a massive long shot at 9-2 on the morning line, but we should still get a decent price on a win bet. It’s also worth tossing some money at Goal Oriented in the event of a wire-to-wire win. Likewise, Sandman is intriguing given his closer style.

$25 Budget

$15 win bet on 6
$5 win bet on 1 and 7

$100 Budget

$50 win bet on 6
$25 win bet on 1 and 7

In terms of exotic wagers, River Thames is the top key horse. He’s versatile, well-rested and figures to sit the ideal stalking trip. Goal Oriented is the wild card up front. If he shakes loose, he could take them all the way. Sandman gives you protection in the event of a pace meltdown, closing from the clouds and crashing the ticket late. Journalism is used defensively. The short rest and regression risk make him tough to trust on top, but he’s still a factor for the lower rungs. Heart of Honor fits as the surprise who could sneak into the back end of the trifecta if the setup goes his way. A light chaos hedge includes American Promise and Clever Again in deeper verticals. Here are some sample wagers:

$5 exacta 6 with 1, 2, 7 ($15 total bet)
$5 exacta 1 with 2, 6, 7 ($15)
$5 exacta 1 with 6, 7 ($10)
$5 exacta 7 with 1, 6 ($10)
$2 exacta 6 with 4, 8 ($4)
$1 exacta box 4, 8, 9 ($6)
$1 trifecta 6 with 1, 7 with ALL ($14)
$1 trifecta 6 with ALL with 1, 7 ($14)
$1 trifecta 1 with 6,7 with ALL ($14)
$1 trifecta 7 with 1, 6 with ALL ($14)
$1 trifecta box 1, 4, 6, 7 ($24)
$0.50 trifecta box 4, 5, 8, 9 ($24)
$1 superfecta 6 with 7 with 1 with ALL ($6)
$1 superfecta 6 with 1 with 7 with 2 ($1)

Preakness Stakes Race Flow & Likely Scenario on a Sloppy Track

If the track comes up sloppy, expect a sharper and more contested pace than on a fast surface. Riders get aggressive early in the slop to avoid kickback, and that should result in a faster-than-normal first quarter. Goal Oriented breaks from the rail and is committed to the front. His off-track rating is average, but Baffert speed types tend to get sent, and inside draws often play well when the surface is wet. Clever Again is hustled early but risks getting hung wide from post 8. Pay Billy and Gosger show early foot but are more likely to stalk than press. The opening quarter should come up around 23.1-23.3 seconds with Goal Oriented in front, Clever Again applying outside pressure, and Gosger and Pay Billy tracking just behind.

On the backstretch, Goal Oriented stays in front but is kept honest by Clever Again. Pay Billy moves up the rail while River Thames stalks in the garden spot, sitting fourth and waiting for the right moment. Journalism and Heart of Honor settle midpack and seem to be handling the footing well. Sandman drops back early and waits to make his one move.

The far turn starts to separate the real contenders. River Thames begins to roll, looping up outside the pace and showing no issue with the footing. Heart of Honor grinds forward along the inside, not flashy but clearly advancing. Journalism begins to rally but doesn’t match the move he showed two weeks ago. Sandman tries to go but looks one-paced in the goo, never uncorking his usual punch.

Turning for home, River Thames takes control. His off-track rating isn’t stellar, but he stays balanced and handles the surface better than most. Goal Oriented is still trying to hang on but is feeling the pressure. Heart of Honor is making up ground quickly, slicing through tired horses and clearly relishing the mud. Journalism stays on but doesn’t threaten for the win. Sandman and Clever Again flatten out, unable to produce a second effort.

The likely finish sees River Thames winning off a perfect trip, using his class and position to overcome the footing. Heart of Honor is the big slop-upgraded closer who gets up for second late. Goal Oriented runs his race and holds for third. Journalism runs evenly and checks in fourth. Either Pay Billy or Gosger could round out the top five depending on who tires less.

Sloppy conditions favor stalkers and inside movers, which tilts the race toward River Thames and Heart of Honor. The latter turns into a live bomb if the rain hits, with the right style and surface preference. Journalism still matters, but the combo of short rest and off going limits his ceiling. Sandman is the biggest downgrade in the mud. His closer profile and off-track rating suggest a duller late kick.

Preakness Stakes Betting Strategy for a Sloppy Track

The simulations still have River Thames as the top contender, but the scales certainly shift in Heart of Honor’s favor here. We also still have Goal Oriented as a threat to wire the field if the slop ends up favoring speed down on the rail.

$25 Budget

$15 win bet on 6
$5 win bet on 1 and 4

$100 Budget

$50 win bet on 6
$25 win bet on 1 and 4

As for the exotics, our approach still leans on River Thames as the stalking winner but also heavily integrates Heart of Honor, who gets a major upgrade if the pace heats up or the track turns sloppy. It covers the scenario where Goal Oriented wires the field and limits overexposure to Journalism, acknowledging the short rest and regression risk. There’s also realistic board-hitter coverage built in for value types like Pay Billy and Gosger.

$5 exacta 6 with 1, 2, 4 ($15 total bet)
$5 exacta 4 with 1, 2, 6 ($15)
$5 exacta 1 with 2, 4, 6 ($15)
$5 exacta box 1, 4, 6 ($30)
$1 exacta box 4, 5, 8, 9 ($12)
$1 trifecta 6 with 1, 4 with ALL ($14)
$1 trifecta 6 with ALL with 1, 4 ($14)
$1 trifecta 4 with 1, 6 with ALL ($14)
$1 trifecta 4 with ALL with 1, 6 ($14)
$1 trifecta 1 with 4, 6 with ALL ($14)
$0.50 trifecta box 1, 4, 5, 6 ($24)
$1 superfecta 6 with 4 with 1 with ALL ($6)
$1 superfecta 4 with 6 with 1 with ALL ($6)
$0.50 superfecta box 1, 4, 5, 6 ($12)