Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 148th running of the Preakness Stakes is this Saturday, which means we have another opportunity to win some money. Two weeks ago, Mage stormed down the stretch to a big win at the Kentucky Derby. Unlike last year when Derby winner Rich Strike did not run in the Preakness, we have Mage attempting to complete the second leg of the Triple Crown. While Mage is the favorite, we also have several viable contenders in this seven-horse field. Let’s look at what history tells us about the Preakness and put a betting slip together.
Up-Front Speed Tends to Dominate the Preakness
While there isn’t a proven process for the Preakness like the one I use for the Kentucky Derby, we can still look to history to handicap the field. The first thing we need to know about this race is that it tends to favor speed and pacesetters. This isn’t the type of race where we should look to closers as our top choices to win. However, we also can’t completely rule them out as Rombauer won with a closing style two years ago. Here’s how the field sets up in terms of running style:
1 National Treasure (4-1) – Stalker
2 Chase the Chaos (50-1) – Closer
3 Mage (8-5) – Closer
4 Coffeewithchris (20-2) – Pacesetter
5 Red Route One (10-1) – Closer
6 Perform (15-1) – Closer
7 Blazing Sevens (6-1) – Closer
8 First Mission (5-2) – scratched Friday
This one sets up very differently than many iterations of the Preakness. There’s very little early speed in this field, with just Coffeewithchris as the pacesetter. While it will likely be on the lead early, Coffeewithchris has never run in a graded stakes and has a top Beyer speed figure of jut 88. This horse is outclassed and isn’t likely to be a factor.
A lack of early speed tends to set up well for the closers in the field, but it should be noted that we could see Javier Castellano take Mage to the front early in the race. Mage did run up front in its maiden win but has used a closing style in the three races since. If Mage does get taken out to the front, look for National Treasure to be stalking just over Castellano’s right shoulder. In that scenario, the two will duke it out down the stretch.
However, Mage could sit back and look to benefit from slow early fractions. If we do get a slow race early, it will be a wild finish down the stretch with Mage, Blazing Sevens, Red Route One and Perform all in the mix.
Experience (and Wins) Matter
To win the Preakness, horses typically not only need experience in graded stakes races, but they also need to have won. Only three of the last 20 Preakness winners have not won a graded stakes race. Of the field, only Mage and Blazing Sevens have won a graded stakes event.
Of the seven horses in the race, Perform and Coffeewithchris are the lone horses who have never run in a graded stakes. National Treasure has hit the board in three graded stakes and most recently finished fourth in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Chase the Chaos has just one graded stakes appearance, finishing seventh in the Grade 2 San Felipe. Red Route One finished second in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes back in February, and we will come back to this race later in this piece.
Fade the Longshots
Every year, there are a horse or two who are simply overmatched in this race. Often this is a local horse who is based at Pimlico. While these horses may have interesting stories, betting on them to win is a waste of your money. In 145 years of the Preakness, only four winners have come in at over 15-1 odds, with Master Derby being the longest odds we’ve seen at 23-1 in 1975.
If you had any temptation to wager on Coffeewithchris or Chase the Chaos to win, this should hopefully dissuade you. Coffeewithchris faded hard in its last outing, while Chase the Chaos has a career-best Beyer speed figure of just 83.
However, it should be noted that four of the last 11 winners have been between 10-1 and 15-1: Rombauer last year at 11-1, Cloud Computing in 2017 at 13-1, Oxbow in 2013 at 15-1 and Shackleford in 2011 at 12-1. The most likely candidates in this range will be either Perform or Red Route One.
Weather Could Be a Factor
Intermittent showers are in the forecast for Baltimore Saturday, with a 50% chance of rain when the race is scheduled to go to post. While today’s tracks do dry out very quickly, we do have a chance for a sloppy track. Before we get crazy with “mudder” references from Seinfeld, keep in mind that the slop didn’t impact American Pharoah in 2015. He wired the field on his way to a historic Triple Crown win.
At the same time, we’ve seen a sloppy track flip Triple Crown races on their head. Mine that Bird hugged the rail on the slop to win the 2009 Kentucky Derby. And Ruler on Ice made yours truly a bunch of money as a 24-1 long shot in the 2011 Belmont Stakes.
How did I know to wager on that horse? Believe it or not, it’s very simple. Every horse has what’s called a Tomlinson rating for different surfaces, including wet tracks. These numbers are based on the horse’s pedigree and go from 0-480, with a higher number being better.
Technically speaking, any horse with 320-or-better can handle a sloppy track. Every horse does top that threshold. However, two horses are over 400: National Treasure (416) and Red Route One (449). And of those two, Red Route One is the lone horse with experience on a wet track. In fact, he’s run three races on the slop, with his most recent being the aforementioned second-place finish in the Rebel Stakes. Red Route One ran a 92 Beyer speed figure in that race, which is tied for its best number. If it looks like the track is going to be sloppy, Red Route One deserves strong consideration.
How to Bet the Race
Given the historic trends, this race is wide open. However, we’re almost certainly going to see the public place a lot of money on Mage. The top horse coming out of the Derby tends to draw a lot of money from the betting public. It wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see this horse go off at 1-1 or worse. Betting on horses with such short odds is a negative-EV strategy over the long term. We can and will put Mage in exotic wagers, but this isn’t the horse for your win bets.
Instead, we need to look for a better price. National Treasure will give more favorable odds, but only barely. Expect something in the range of 3-1 for the Bob Baffert horse. That isn’t an ideal price for win bets.
So that brings us to Blazing Sevens, who will likely be the third betting favorite. The horse has the experience necessary to win but will need a slower pace early in the race. At the same time, we also must note the weather. A sloppy rack will set things up for Red Route One to offer the most appealing betting potential.
If you don’t want to bet exotics and prefer to stick to win, place, and show bets, here’s how we could approach this race on a small budget and a larger budget:
$20 Budget
$10 win and place bets on 7
$100 Budget
$25 win, place, and show bets on 7
$15 win bet on 5
$10 win bet on 6
In terms of the exotics, we don’t simply want to box up the favorites and call it a day. The top two betting favorites haven’t finished in those spots at the Preakness in nearly 40 years. We did see the reverse in 2012 with the second favorite winning the race and the favorite finishing second, but it’s rare for the favorites to come in at the top of the board. We almost always see horses with slightly longer odds hitting the board. Preakness exactas have had at least one horse at 10-1 or greater in nine of the last 10 races.
We need to look to some of the longer odds for our exotics. Here’s where all those closers come into play. Chase the Chaos is in play to hit the board. If you want to play a simple exacta that fades the top two favorites, we’d be looking at something like 7 with 2-5-6. A $2 exacta would cost you $6 for this bet and the payout would likely be quite hefty. Of course, this isn’t the most probable outcome, so it’s a good idea to play multiple exotics. Here are some sample wagers based on my handicapping:
$4 exacta: 7 with all ($24 total bet)
$4 exacta: all with 7 ($24 total bet)
$2 exacta: 5 with all ($12 total bet)
$2 exacta: 6 with all ($12 total bet)
$1 trifecta: 7 with all with all ($30 total bet)
$1 trifecta: all with 7 with all ($30 total bet)
$1 trifecta: all with all with 7 ($30 total bet)
(Note: The 5 would replace the 7 in the above wagers if the track is sloppy.)
