Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Run for the Roses is here. Saturday, we’ll have the 148th running of the Kentucky Derby. Kentucky Derby betting is always tricky, as you not only have very young horses, but you also have a massive 20 horses on the track. That may seem intimidating, but I have something that can potentially help you pinpoint who to place your bets on in the Debry.
Years ago, I came across a forum post from a poster called MoneylineExpress that outlined a 10-step process that whittled down the 20-horse field to just a few viable contenders. Horse racing systems are a dime a dozen and usually don’t work. But to my surprise, this process nailed Animal Kingdom as one of the three horses who could win the 2011 Kentucky Derby. A $2 win bet on Animal Kingdom paid $43.80, so needless to say, the process always stuck out to me.
2022 Kentucky Derby Betting
Over the years, I’ve used this process to identify my Derby win bets. While the winners haven’t always been longer shots like Animal Kingdom, the process has worked in nine of the last 10 running of the roses. The one exception came in 2019 when Country House won as a 65-1 longshot in the slop thanks to the disqualification of Maximum Security. So the process isn’t foolproof, but it’s pretty darn good. So let’s dive into the 10 steps. First, here’s a look at the field with the trainer and jockey in parenthesis along with their opening line odds:
1 Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr.) 10-1
2 Happy Jack (Doug O’Neill, Rafael Bejarano) 30-1
3 Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario) 7-2
4 Summer Is Tomorrow (Bhupat Seemar, Mickael Barzalona) 30-1
5 Smile Happy (Kenny McPeek, Corey Lanerie) 20-1
6 Messier (Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez) 8-1
7 Crown Pride (Koichi Shintani, Christophe Lemaire) 20-1
8 Charge It (Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez) 20-1
9 Tiz the Bomb (Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr.) 30-1
10 Zandon (Chad Brown, Flavien Prat) 3-1
11 Pioneer of Medina (Todd Pletcher, Joe Bravo) 30-1
12 Taiba (Tim Yakteen, Mike Smith) 12-1
13 Simplification (Antonio Sano, Jose Ortiz) 20-1
14 Barber Road (John Ortiz, Reylu Gutierrez) 30-1
15 White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph Jr., Tyler Gaffalione) 10-1
16 Cyberknife (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux) 20-1
17 Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch, Julien Leparoux) 30-1
18 Tawny Port (Brad Cox, Ricardo Santana Jr.) 30-1
19 Zozos (Brad Cox, Manny Franco) 20-1
20 Ethereal Road (D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Contreras) 30-1
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How to Bet on the Kentucky Derby
Step 1
Remove all horses who did not run at least 1 1/8 mile in their last prep race. Horses who have not run at least this distance will have a tough time with the 1 1/4 mile distance in the Derby. Every winner for the last 28 years has run at least 1 1/8 mile in their final prep race before the Derby.
Eliminate:
18 Tawny Port – last race was the Lexington Stakes at 1 1/16.
20 Ethereal Road – last race was the Lexington Stakes at 1 1/16.
Step 2
Remove all horses who did not finish at least fourth or better in its final prep race. No horse has won the race with a finish worse than fourth in its last prep race going back to 1962. The 2019 winner Country House finished third in its final prep race before the Derby, but often the winner is coming off a win in its final prep race.
Eliminate:
17 Classic Causeway – Finished 11th in the Florida Derby.
Step 3
Remove all horses who did not race at age 2. All of the horses in the Kentucky Derby are 3 years old. While that may seem quite young, we never seen a horse step onto the track at 3 and compete at this level.
Eliminate:
2 Happy Jack – First race was Jan. 22, 2022.
8 Charge It – First race was Jan. 8, 2022.
12 Taiba – First race was March 5, 2022 (Yes, Taiba has some of the fastest Beyer figures in this year’s field, but he’s only had two races under his belt).
19 Zoros – First race was Jan. 23, 2022.
Step 4
Remove all horses who were not first or second with a furlong to go in either of their last two starts before the Derby. Sure, Giacomo won the roses from back in sixth with a furlong to go in 2005, but those sorts of comebacks are rare in the Derby. The winner will almost always be up front with a furlong to go.
Eliminate:
14 Barber Road – Was third and fourth with a furlong to go in last two races.
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The Contenders for 2022 Kentucky Derby Betting
1 Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr.) 10-1
3 Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario) 7-2
4 Summer Is Tomorrow (Bhupat Seemar, Mickael Barzalona) 30-1
5 Smile Happy (Kenny McPeek, Corey Lanerie) 20-1
6 Messier (Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez) 8-1
7 Crown Pride (Koichi Shintani, Christophe Lemaire) 20-1
9 Tiz the Bomb (Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr.) 30-1
10 Zandon (Chad Brown, Flavien Prat) 3-1
11 Pioneer of Medina (Todd Pletcher, Joe Bravo) 30-1
13 Simplification (Antonio Sano, Jose Ortiz) 20-1
15 White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph Jr., Tyler Gaffalione) 10-1
16 Cyberknife (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux) 20-1
The field is now whittled down to 12 horses with the fifth favorite in Taiba taken off the board. From here we will no longer be eliminating any horses. Instead we’re going to award a point to the horses for each of criteria box they check.
Step 5
Give a point to any horse who won a race of at least one mile at two years old.
Point to:
1 Mo Donegal, 3 Epicenter, 5 Smile Happy, 7 Crown Pride, 9 Tiz the Bomb, 11 Pioneer of Medina, 15 White Abarrio, 16 Cyberknife
Step 6
Give a point to any horse who ran one of its two fastest Beyer speed figures in its last race.
Point to:
1 Mo Donegal, 3 Epicenter, 4 Summer Is Tomorrow, 5 Smile Happy, 6 Messier, 7 Crown Pride, 9 Tiz the Bomb, 10 Zandon, 11 Pioneer of Medina, 13 Simplification, 15 White Abarrio, 16 Cyberknife
Step 7
Give a point to any horse who ran in a graded stakes as a 3-year-old before April.
Point to:
5 Smile Happy, 6 Messier, 9 Tiz the Bomb, 10 Zandon, 15 White Abarrio
Step 8
Give a point to any horse who won a graded stakes race.
Point to:
1 Mo Donegal, 3 Epicenter, 5 Smile Happy, 6 Messier, 7 Crown Pride, 9 Tiz the Bomb, 10 Zandon, 13 Simplification, 15 White Abarrio, 16 Cyberknife
Step 9
Give a point to any horse who finish in each of its last two races was no worse than its place with one furlong to go in the race.
Point to:
1 Mo Donegal, 3 Epicenter, 9 Tiz the Bomb, 10 Zandon, 15 White Abarrio, 16 Cyberknife
The Results for Best Bets at the 2022 Kentucky Derby
9 Tiz the Bomb 5
1 Mo Donegal 4
3 Epicenter 4
10 Zandon 4
15 White Abarrio 4
16 Cyberknife 4
5 Smile Happy 3
6 Messier 3
7 Crown Pride 3
11 Pioneer of Medina 2
13 Simplification 2
4 Summer Is Tomorrow 1
Step 10
Winning horses nearly always have four or five points from the previous five steps. We can toss Smile Happy, Messier, Crown Pride, Pioneer of Medina, Simplification and Summer Is Tomorrow from the pool. In our final step, we’re going to look at the Beyer speed figures for this group. To eliminate any one-hit wonders, we’re going to take the second-highest Beyer figure for each of the seven remaining horses.
3 Epicenter 98
15 White Abarrio 96
10 Zandon 93
1 Mo Donegal 90
16 Cyberknife 87
9 Tiz the Bomb 84
While Beyer numbers are far from a perfect metric, we typically don’t see a horse not within five points of the top speed take the roses. So that takes Tiz the Bomb and Cyberknife out of the mix, along with leaving Mo Donegal on the outside looking in. So we’re left with the following horses as the top contenders:
3 Epicenter
10 Zandon
15 White Abarrio
Zandon is the heavy favorite for this race with an opening line of 3-1. There’s a chance it gets bet down even further before post, so we aren’t likely to get any value here. Epicenter isn’t far behind at 7-2, but White Abarrio has chance to give us longer odds and offers some very intriguing potential for betting purposes.
We also should consider the jockeys for each horse. Flavian Pratt will be on the mount for Zandon. Pratt was a Derby winner in 2019, though his horse did not actually cross the line first. Maximum Security was disqualified giving Pratt and Country House the win. Joel Rosario is on Epicenter and has a Derby win in 2013 in the slop on Orb. And on White Abarrio, Tyler Gaffalione is one of the youngest jocks in the field. The son of long-time jockey Steve Gaffalione, he he’s yet to break his maiden in the Debry, but he did win the 2019 Preakness Stakes aboard War of Will.
So there you have it. The process has given us three horses. Zandon and Epicenter are unlikely to give us a good price, but we could get reasonable offs on White Abarrio. Win bets on both the favorites plus a smaller win bet on White Abarrio make a lot of sense. Here’s how we could approach this race on a small budget and a larger budget:
Betting on the Kentucky Derby with a $20 Budget
$8 win bet on 3, 10
$4 win bet on 15
Betting on the Kentucky Derby with a $100 Budget
$20 win and place bet on 3, 10
$10 win and place bet on 15
Now, I should say that the above process works for identifying candidates who can win the race, but it’s not an approach to use for exotics. Sure, we can use 3, 10 and 15 as our key horses, but simply boxing them up in exactas and trifectas isn’t an optimal approach. Here, we’ll need to sprinkle in horses who didn’t meet our criteria above because every year we see those horses hit the board. Here are the other horses I’ll be using in exotics:
Exactas – in addition the key horses, add the following
9 Tiz the Bomb
12 Taiba
13 Simplification
16 Cyberknife
Trifectas – add these horses to the key horses and exacta horses
1 Mo Donegal
5 Smile Happy
6 Messier
8 Charge It
14 Barber Road
18 Tawny Port
Here are some sample wagers based on the above picks:
$2 exacta: 3, 10, 15 /9, 12, 13, 16 ($24 total bet)
$2 exacta box: 3, 10, 15 ($12)
$1 exacta: 3, 10, 15/1, 5, 6, 8, 14, 18 ($18)
$1 trifecta: 3, 10/3, 9, 10, 12, 13, 15, 16/ 3, 9, 10, 12, 13, 15, 16 ($60)
$1 trifecta: 10/3, 15, 16/1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18 ($30)
$1 trifecta: 10/1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18 /3, 15, 16 ($30)
