College Basketball Game of the Day, March 4: Albany vs. Vermont

College basketball’s conference tournaments have begun, and we are now less than 15 days away from Selection Sunday. It’s almost a bittersweet moment — this is the best time of year, but it also means that the season will be over soon. Thankfully, we still have plenty of opportunities to get to the window and there is one game in particular that I feel especially good about. Let’s dive in.

Albany Great Danes vs. Vermont Catamounts

(Vermont -4.5, O/U 132.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Catamounts have been the class of the America East for a long time and are looking to make the NCAA tournament for a fourth straight year. Coach John Becker has Vermont at 12-3 in conference play and 19-11 overall. They are currently on a three-game home winning streak and are favored to extend that to a fourth straight win. It’s worth noting that they did beat Albany 68-62 on the road in their prior meeting Feb. 8.

One of the Catamounts best players is TJ Hurley. He is averaging 15.8 PPG while knocking down 38.3% of his triples. He has a 26.7% shot rate and is top-10 in true shooting percentage, offensive rating and fouls drawn rate in America East games. Shamir Bogues leads the team in assists (2.5 APG) and steals (1.6 SPG) while frequently operating as the primary facilitator. Forward Sam Alamutu has been a menace on the glass, rocking a 22.2% DRebounding rate while averaging just under 6 boards per game.

Speaking of rebounding, the Catamounts are 26th in DRebounding percentage per KenPom and frequently dominate their conference foes on that side of the ball. They outrebounded Albany 38-27 in their last meeting.

Albany’s top player Byron Joshua averages 14.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3 APG and 1.7 SPG. Other notable Dane’s players are former BC and UCF transfer DeMarr Langford (10.3 PPG) and Ama’re Marshall (13.3 PPG). Their leading rebounder is Justin Neely (7.2 RPG). One player that gave Vermont trouble last game was St Joe’s transfer Kacper Klaczek. He hasn’t been particularly efficient, making only 28% of his long-range jumpers but he is a certified chucker with over 100 attempts on the season. He made 3-8 against Vermont in a close home loss.

Vermont is 6-11 ATS this year when favored by 4.5-points or more. On the flip side, Albany is 5-3 ATS when they’re listed as an underdog of 4.5 or more points. However, this is one trend that doesn’t concern me as Vermont has been nails at home and will be looking to close out yet another successful regular season.

Albany’s porous efficiency rankings on both offense (244th) and defense (260th) tells us they’re in a vulnerable position in a hostile environment. Meanwhile, Vermont’s defensive efficiency ranking has risen to 137th currently. Lastly, the Catamounts haven beaten Albany in nine straight games. It will be 10 when the final horn sounds and the inevitable free-throw shooting contest at the end will put us in a position to waltz to the window with clutch cover.