College Basketball Game of the Day, Feb. 18: North Florida vs. Stetson

The NBA All-Star break is coming to an end, but the sports world focus remains on college basketball for at least another day. Big Tuesday offers us a ton of opportunities to get to the window, but there is one game in particular that is especially advantageous. 

In this breakdown, I will highlight the game itself and all aspects of the matchup. This will be a weekly piece-and it will add to our already-robust niche sports content. Let’s get into Tuesday’s game of the day.

North Florida Ospreys vs. Stetson Hatters

(North Florida -6.5, O/U 165.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)

We have a Tuesday night battle in the ASUN between the North Florida Ospreys and the Stetson Hatters. The Hatters are coached by Donnie Jones and have had a rough season at 7-20. The Ospreys are only slightly better at 13-14 under long-time head coach Matthew Driscoll.

Interestingly enough, the Ospreys started the season hot with road wins over South Carolina and Georgia Tech, but their momentum was quickly snuffed out. Their season has been derailed, and they’ve gone just 5-6 in Quad 4 games to this date. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games which is a direct result of their defensive struggles. They are 353rd in defensive efficiency per KenPom. To put this into further perspective, there are 364 total teams in D-1 college basketball. Not great, Bob!

Stetson is near the bottom of the NCAA in defensive efficiency as well so needless to say there will be a lot of points scored in this one. It’s also worth noting that these two teams played Jan. 29, which resulted in a 101-100 overtime win for UNF. That result was a cover for the Hatters, and now they’re getting 6.5 points at home, which gives me a lot of confidence to fully back them.

Stetson’s top player is Mekhi Ellison. He is averaging 15.2 PPG while shooting 38.2% from long-range and leads the team with a shot rate just under 30%. Tulane transfer Jordan Wood has been an important part of the rotation as well, averaging 12.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG and has knocked down 37% of his triples. Other key players include Josh Massey (11.5 PPG) and Abramo Canka (8.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG). Canka has spent time with UCLA and Wake Forest earlier in his career.

UNF has a plethora of capable scorers. Defense is optional as we mentioned before, but they have the firepower to outscore their opponents outright on the right day. Jasai Miles (15.3 PPG), Josh Harris (13.7 PPG), Liam Murphy (13 PPG), Nate Lliteras (12.4 PPG) and Jaylen Smith (11.1 PPG) all average double-figures for the Ospreys.

The total is admittedly high at 165.5, but these two teams have already combined for over 200 points once and there is no reason to think they can’t push towards 170 in this spot. With that said, we are going to take the over and the points with Stetson. 

Best Bet

Stetson +6.5 (-115) and North Florida/Stetson Over 165.5 (-110)