College Basketball Best Bets (2/15)

Welcome to another Saturday college basketball slate as we inch closer to March. The resumes are shaping into place, and bracketologists everywhere are coming out of the woodwork as the bubble debate begins to heat up while love is in the air.

With the Super Bowl gone, it finally feels like basketball season. Many teams are jockeying for conference seeding, and there are some under-the-radar matchups that I highly recommend watching.

After starting the year rough, it’s been a great last month or so and if you only look at the picks I’ve given out in this article, it’s been nothing but successful. Let’s keep that momentum going, shall we?

Last Article: 1-2 | Season (Articles): 30-24 | Season (Overall): 111-116-1

College Basketball Best Bets

Auburn at Alabama

Coleman Coliseum | Tuscaloosa, AL
Alabama -1.5 | Total: 172.5

I know every game sometimes feels like “the game of the year,” but how many times can you say you’ve seen a one-possession spread between the one and two seed? We’re in for a delightful game at the Coleman Coliseum. Auburn bounced back after a tough defeat to Florida by handling Vanderbilt, while Bama has been on a heater with a seven-game winning streak, finding themselves as a slight favorite.

The sweeping presence of Johni Broome has anchored Auburn’s game. The Tigers’ big man is a force on both ends of the court with an elite block and rebound rate. No player ranks higher in EvanMiya’s BPR metric than Broome and between him and Flagg, you have the clear best two players in the sport. Auburn’s supporting cast has made it the most efficient offense in the league. They don’t turn the ball over, have sharpshooters in Tahaad Pettiford and Denver Jones, and have playmaking options with Chad Baker-Mazara, and almost everyone contributes. Dylan Cardwell plays 20 minutes a night and still ranks fifth among EvanMiya’s player ranking. This is a good team.

Alabama has also been amazing, but they haven’t gotten as much love with the SEC so deep. Mark Sears is an all-conference player that helps their breakneck pace (second-fastest pace of play in DI) and the only offense that ranks higher is Auburn. They rebound misses at the 15^th-highest rate and defend the perimeter at an elite clip, keeping opponents below 30% from deep. Grant Nelson and Clifford Omoruyi will have their hands full defending Broome but with their 6-11 frames and Bama’s 15th-ranked near-proximity defense, I expect them to be up to the challenge.

A potential X-factor for this game is going to be Aden Holloway. After transferring over from Auburn, he’s been lights out for Bama, averaging 12 points a game but has shot 50 percent from deep in conference play. Even if he and Bama are missing their perimeter looks, their second-chance conversion percentage is 10th best in the nation. In this matchup, they will convert misses and get to the charity stripe plenty.

Overall, I just can’t expect Auburn to keep winning and am leaning on momentum for the Crimson Tide. As noted by EvanMiya, Nate Oats’ squad gets up for big games and can play up in class. Their perimeter shooting, pace of play, offensive rebounding and interior defense is going to be too much for these Tigers to handle.

Prediction

Alabama 90, Auburn 85

Best Bet

Alabama -2.5 (-105, BetMGM)

Houston at Arizona

McKale Memorial Center | Tucson, AZHouston -1.5 | Total: 137.5

No team has confused me more than Arizona this basketball season. After starting 4-5, Arizona has been on a tear, going 13-2 with wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech. They took a step back with a road loss to Kansas State but can at least blame their 2-22 shooting from beyond the arc on that one. Since that December loss to UCLA, Tommy Lloyd’s squad ranks eighth in DI with a top-15 offense and defense, per Bart Torvik.

Houston has been doing Houston things, going 16-1 since Dec. 1 after a 4-3 start to the year. They’ve found their footing on defense — surprise, surprise — playing their physical way of forcing opponents deep into the shot clock while allowing nothing down low with a top-10 mid-range and near-proximity defensive shooting percentage.

What stands out is how Arizona can exploit the Cougars’ weaknesses. The Wildcats have gone 10-2 this season when hitting a free throw rate of at least 34.8 percent, and Houston’s defensive FTR sits at 35.1%. Three of four Houston losses have come with their four worst such games. The free points at the charity stripe add up.

Another standout aspect of Saturday’s game is how Arizona’s defense lines up to counter Houston. Kelvin Sampson’s squad ranks eighth in OReb rate, but Arizona is 15th at limiting second-chance conversions. Houston expects to shoot 40% of their shots in the mid-range where Arizona has the advantage defensively. And when looking at home court, Arizona reps the 80^th-best homecourt advantage per KenPom, not too shabby.

As long as Caleb Love doesn’t try to do too much, I see Arizona with a big win here. He’ll get open looks from deep while KJ Lewis and Jaden Bradley should get to the charity stripe. Tobe Awaka and Henri Veesaar should anchor the Arizona frontcourt, and this all-encompassing effort will lead them to a victory.

Prediction

Arizona 71, Houston 66

Best Bet

Arizona +1.5 (-105, BetMGM)

Wisconsin at Purdue

Mackey Arena | West Lafayette, INPurdue -5.5 | Total: 149.5

I’m glad this game is on CBS, because I don’t feel as if the Big Ten has gotten a lot of love this year and these are the two best teams in the conference, each consistently ranked in the top 15 nationally across the analytical sites.

John Tonje has been a pleasant surprise for Wisconsin on his third team in as many years. He is a free throw machine who can light it up from deep and only seems to continue improving, averaging over 18 points a night. John Blackwell is right behind, continuing on his solid freshman year. At the same time, Nolan Winter, Kamari McGee, and Carter Gilmore all add efficient minutes, each ranking in the top 40 in KenPom’s offensive rating among all DI players. Steven Crowl is the centerpiece of the frontcourt and is a major contributor to Wisconsin’s excellent interior offense.

With Purdue, it’s become a two-man show between Trey Kaufman-Renn inside and Braden Smith out. Fletcher Loyer is the third sharpshooting option, and the rest of the cast are significant role players. Their loss to Michigan highlighted how weak their interior offense has become sans Zach Edey, and it will be interesting to see if Caleb Furst is up for the challenge — the Boilermakers rank 313th in near-proximity defensive shooting percentage for context.

However, Purdue’s defense does well in limiting opportunities for looks down low. It funnels shots to the perimeter and won’t often send the Badgers to the charity stripe. Haslametrics projects Wisconsin to take over half of its shots from deep, which is excellent for the top-25 perimeter defense Purdue exhibits.

Wisconsin’s defense should also play here, with a top-25 mid-range defense where Purdue loves to shoot the ball, and the Badgers should keep Purdue off the boards and won’t allow much in transition. The methodical play of Wisconsin will take away anything easy for the home team and force them to make difficult shots.

To lay 5.5 points is a lot, but the total is where my eye is. Even if Wisconsin is playing efficient ball and finding looks down low, they are likely slowing down the pace to set up their half-court offense. The total continues to creep up and let it, because I love the under here.