College Basketball Best Bets (12/14)

Well, we finally made it — a Saturday of hoops that is to die for. We got Gonzaga-UConn, Tennessee-Illinois, Texas A&M-Purdue and a plethora of other matchups that make it feel like Christmas came early. It’s been a bit of a difficult season to predict game by game so far.

With all the moving pieces in the transfer portal era and so many big names playing for a paycheck in the NIL era, there is even more to consider when making wagers. Still, we continue on, as every day gives us more and more data to become sharper. Let’s jump right in.

Last Article: 2-4 | Season (Articles): 7-8 | Season (Overall): 31-29

College Basketball Best Bets

Gonzaga vs. UConn

Madison Square Garden
Gonzaga -3.0 | Total: 151.5

Shout out to Mark Few for the non-con schedule he’s put together, because it has been entertaining to say the least when following Gonzaga. This one is no different, as the Bulldogs line up against the back-to-back champion UConn Huskies in Madison Square Garden. There are many storylines to this game, but one that stands out is how this is a rematch of the Elite Eight match from 2023 when the Huskies absolutely routed Gonzaga. There will for sure be at least a minor revenge narrative at play.

But these are two different squads now. Graham Ike in his second year as a Zag has been on fire, scoring 28 points last time out against Kentucky, when he seemingly couldn’t miss. He’s only failed to reach double-digit points in two of Gonzaga’s games. Khalif Battle has slotted in well after transferring from Arkansas. Braden Huff has evolved his game, and Ryan Nembhard continues to be an excellent facilitator with the third-highest assist rate among all DI players.

For Connecticut, they are still finding their ways after losing Tristen Newton, Donovan Clingan, Cam Spencer and Stephon Castle as the main cast of the championship squad a year ago. Alex Karaban has been awesome with the No. 20 offensive rating among all players and Tarris Reed has been a monster on the glass with the fifth-highest offensive rebound rate in the nation. Despite their three losses, this is still a high-quality squad under Dan Hurley.

For this matchup, the most intriguing battle will be down low. Ike and Huff are the two highest-usage Zags, but UConn still boasts the third-best near-proximity defense while limiting second-chance conversions at the best rate in the country. Luckily for Gonzaga, not only does Ike draw fouls at the highest rate in all of basketball but Uconn fouls at an awfully high clip. In their loss to Memphis, the Tigers attempted 40 free throws. Against Dayton, that number was 30, and the Flyers made 27 of them! Gonzaga will get a lot of free points unless something drastically changes.

Connecticut has the No. 29 rim-and-three rate, but the Huskies go against a Bulldogs team that ranks second at perimeter defense and will force the game down low. Around the hoop, UConn has the advantage offensively, but Gonzaga will limit any transition game and rebounds at a top-20 rate defensively.

I expect Few to test UConn’s discipline early and attack them down low. Dan Hurley’s squad is not as deep as he’s used to so getting Reed or some of their heavy hitters in foul trouble early can be an effective strategy for Gonzaga. If that doesn’t work, the Bulldogs can fall back on their perimeter offense and UConn has allowed opponents to shoot a 37% clip from deep this year. In all, there are more avenues for Gonzaga to pull away here. UConn has been one of the most inconsistent teams so far this year, ranking 315th in Haslametrics consistency metrics, and 356th in the away-from-home metric. Technically it’s a semi-home game for the Huskies, but I still trust Gonzaga to pull away.

Prediction

Gonzaga 77, UConn 70

Best Bet

Gonzaga -2.0 (-110, Caesars)

Texas A&M vs. Purdue

Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis)
Purdue -2.0 | Total: 143.5

The Aggies of Texas A&M head north to Indiana to take on the national runner-up a year ago in Purdue. Despite not being played in Mackey Arena, this is essentially a home game for Matt Painter and Co., who have reloaded from a year ago. Despite no Zach Edey, the Boilermakers are still a top-10 offense. Trey Kaufman-Renn ranks seventh in KenPom’s Player of the Year rankings, Braden Smith owns the highest assist rate in the country while Fletcher Loyer, Myles Colvin and Camden Heide are all prolific from three, giving Purdue the eighth-best shooting percentage from deep in DI ball.

Texas A&M is more defensive first, depending on their brute strength, ability to force turnovers and rebounding. Their offense is mostly from their 43% offensive rebounding clip, the best in the nation. Besides that, their effective field goal rate ranks 290th with Wade Taylor, one of the best guards in the SEC, the only player to be shooting above 35% from the arc this year. While I imagine that will positively regress, I’m not sure this is the day for that in Indy.

Despite Purdue’s solid offense, I imagine they may find difficulty getting the ball in the hoop this afternoon. They’ve faced one top-10 defense this year and only put up 58 points against Marquette. The Aggies boast a top-50 perimeter defense and the 14th-best near-proximity defense, so I don’t expect Purdue to get anything easy.

Buzz Williams’ squad won’t either though as Purdue is disciplined at avoiding foul trouble and owns a respectful 29% defensive rebound rate. Considering how Purdue is one of the slowest 25 teams in college basketball and both squads struggle when away from their home arena. Defense travels better and I imagine this game will come down to who gets to 70 first.

Prediction

Purdue 70, Texas A&M 67

Best Bet

Under 143.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Xavier vs. Cincinnati

Fifth Third Arena (Cincinnati)
Cincinnati -7.5 | Total: 144

For the best rivalry in sports that no one talks about, we have Xavier-Cincinnati. Considering Xavier has won each of the past five seasons, Cincinnati has a lot on the line as the home favorite.

It’s a little tough to judge Xavier’s season so far. Their lone top-100 win is a neutral site dub over South Carolina but otherwise don’t have a single top-250 win on their resume with a blowout loss to Michigan and a tough defeat at TCU. Zach Freemantle in his return from injury has been solid averaging 65 percent shooting from inside the arc and a 127 offensive rating. Ryan Conwell and Dayvion McKnight make for a solid backcourt, but there just hasn’t been anything to show for it.

Cincinnati is also a team that’s tough to judge so far with high hopes coming into the season but no top-100 win on their resume. I should note that their best win is at Georgia Tech where they walloped the Yellow Jackets, 71-58. Their only top-50 matchup was a loss to a down Villanova team, but at least it was on the road. Jizzle James has been a solid guard in his sophomore season while Simas Lukosius has provided a lot for this team, shooting 53 percent from deep. Down low, Dillon Mitchell is quite efficient with the No. 24 shooting percentage inside the arc.

Lukosius might just be the highest-scoring player for tonight considering Xavier’s defense ranks outside the top 300 from deep. The Bearcats shoot just shy of 40% from deep overall so Xavier will have to step up from deep if they hope to keep this one close in Fifth Third Arena. But if Cincy is missing shots, they don’t have many other avenues of offense. Xavier is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the nation and only 10% of the Bearcats scoring comes from the charity strike, that’s abysmally low.

Xavier also has the capacity to shoot but they rank 332nd in the away-from-home metric per Haslametric. That metric feels like the mecca of college basketball betting because home-court advantage seems to be the biggest in college hoops. Which is exactly why I’m backing the Bearcats. I trust their shooting more at home and they have been a lot more of a consistent team this season. Either way, this game will be quite telling as to where either team shapes up before the turn of the New Year.

Prediction

Cincinnati 76, Xavier 66

Best Bet

Cincinnati -7.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)