Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The 2021 college football season is finally here as opening weekend kicks off this Saturday. Five games highlight a slate with unique regional matchups. One of two games sees the reintroduction of a team that missed the entire 2020 season is the Connecticut Huskies at the Fresno State Bulldogs.
(Check out our college football Week 1 betting breakdown.)
Connecticut’s Randy Edsall has a massive project on his hands as the program looks to turn their program around after 18 months off. Starting off against an explosive Fresno State offense is a tough matchup since they’re going cross-country. But this is an intriguing game considering the two teams have never played each other before.
We’re breaking down how the Connecticut Huskies/Fresno State Bulldogs matchup in this opening weekend showdown. We have two great picks to start the season off on the right foot. Let’s dive in.
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UConn at Fresno State (2 p.m. ET Saturday)
(Fresno State -27.5, O/U 62.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
UConn offense vs. Fresno State defense
The last time we saw the Huskies’ offense, we saw a limited collection of talent that featured two consistent performers and a slew of inconsistency around them. Most of the gang is back even after missing last season, and the time off could be a positive for what was a young group. The Huskies must quickly establish themselves after disappearing for 18 months.
Running back Kevin Mensah is unquestionably the key cog for the unit. He eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark on 4.5 yards per carry rushing in 2019, proving capable of grinding out production even when there was little around him. Mensah had several huge performances that year, including a 19-carry, 164-yard, 5-touchdown day against UMass, but he also had several games where the Huskies couldn’t give him any room to operate.
In the event Fresno State’s defense keys in on Mensah, Cameron Ross will be in the spotlight. He was responsible for the majority of the team’s success through the air, hauling in 60 receptions for 723 yards and four scores. Ross is a small speedster who can win in space, but he hasn’t had the quarterback play required to become more dangerous than a possession threat.
If incumbent Jack Zergiotis wins the job again, he must be less turnover-prone than his poor 2019 showed. He was maddeningly incompetent as a passer. UConn’s offensive potential lies in his hand.
The Fresno State defense was awful against the run in 2020 but great against the pass. Mensah should find holes to produce, but the Huskies don’t have the passing chops to finish drives and withstand a couple of quick scores from the Bulldogs. The only recipe for UConn to win based on what we’ve seen in 2019 is to dominate the trenches and control the clock for a low-scoring affair.
Fresno State offense vs. UConn defense
While the Huskies’ offensive strength bodes well for the road team, the Bulldogs’ strength when their offense is on the field is a greater one. This is one of the best passing attacks in the country, boasting the fifth-most yards in 2020, and finishing 36th in points. They’re bringing back their top five receivers, leading rusher, and senior quarterback Jake Haener.
This unit routinely overwhelms similar and lesser competition. While they struggled more against more powerful competition, teams like UConn have little chance at stopping the offensive consistently. Their personnel lacks size and speed in comparison.
Connecticut allowed over 40 points per game in 2019 and was awful against the pass and run games. They gave up almost 5.9 yards per-carry, and opposing quarterbacks tallied a 158.0 passer rating to go with 28 touchdowns to only seven interceptions on the year. Fresno State should be able to pick apart this group.
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Prediction
We have no reason to think the Huskies have been able to improve outside of practice time and weight room growth. Every other program has had the same benefit, plus the ability to play real games. This line is huge, but with Connecticut traveling over 2,900 miles and playing on the road, I foresee a blowout win for Fresno State that still clears the under.
Our picks: Fresno State -27.5 (-110) and Under 62.5 (-120), DraftKings Sportsbook
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