Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The first weekend of college football is in the books, and we were able to hit a small profit thanks to a key parlay. Though this is the second weekend of college football, it’s still only Week 1 as we have a full slate for the first time this year. Suffice to say we’re ecstatic to have more than a handful of games to analyze.
We start with a key ACC matchup between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Virginia Tech Hokies. These programs went in two different directions last year and both want to take a big step forward in 2021. Each sideline should have a ton of urgency for their own unique reasons.
We’re breaking down how North Carolina and Virginia Tech matchup in this opening weekend showdown. We have two great picks to start the season off on the right foot. Let’s dive in.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Tech Hokies (6 p.m. ET Saturday)
(UNC -5.5, O/U 64, DraftKings Sportsbook)
North Carolina offense vs. Virginia Tech defense
We have to start with the betting favorite to go No. 1 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft, quarterback Sam Howell. Howell has been a prolific passer since he stepped onto campus, thrusting this program to a new level along with head coach Mack Brown. Last year’s offense featured one of the most devastating combinations of passing efficiency and rushing effectiveness.
A ton of playmaking talent is gone from Howell’s arsenal. The running back room looks significantly different with Ty Chandler transferring in from Tennessee and British Brooks taking the presumptive step forward.
Receivers Khafre Brown, Beau Corrales and Josh Downs are well-equipped to fill the shoes of their predecessors. I have no doubts this unit will again be elite, but we have to see the exact pecking order and speed in which the new starters find success.
Last year’s 56-45 shootout featured an efficient 257 yards and three scores for Howell. Rushers Michael Carter and Javonte Williams had almost 400 yards between them. Receivers Dyami Brown, Dazz Newsome and Williams combined for all but 47 yards in the passing game.
Virginia Tech’s defense utterly failed with run discipline and even slowing chunk gains through the air. The Hokies have added two graduate transfers to a unit that allowed 31 or more points in six games last year. Is it going to be enough to slow the Tar Heels?
I don’t think it will.
Virginia Tech offense vs. North Carolina defense
Hokies’ head coach Justin Fuente simply hasn’t been good enough to this point. While the Hokies were somewhat unlucky in several games last year, it’s hard to look at the returning offense and feel confident they’ll be a major threat with their personnel.
They lost their leading passer, rusher and receiver. Junior passer Braxton Burmeister must make massive strides, or else he could be benched in this game as the Hokies scramble to keep up with Howell. The issue is he’s not surrounded by a bunch of proven studs.
That said, the Tar Heels’ defense is highly vulnerable to bleeding points. Chazz Surratt is gone and what’s returned was quite vulnerable in random matchups throughout 2020. It’s not hard to imagine the Hokies can find communication breakdowns and win with sheer speed on several plays.
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Prediction
We’ll see a lot of points even as the Tar Heels break in a slew of new starters. Howell is the real deal and at least the replacements are seniors. This will ease their break-in period.
Virginia Tech has the ability to score as well but it’s hard to trust an offense led by Burmeister. Fuente simply hasn’t built a team worth trusting against teams better than their own.
This will be another high-scoring affair where the Tar Heels pull away from as the game progresses.
Our picks: North Carolina -5.5 (-110) and Over 64 (-105) — or a parlay of the two (+273) — at DraftKings Sportsbook
