NCAA Football Week 1 Odds and Best Bets

After watching the Alabama Crimson Tide run through the NCAA football slate in 2020, teams are starting to get ready for the 2021 season. Even though we’re still in July, it’s never too early to start digging into matchups and NCAA Week 1 odds. 

The first game of the NCAA football season kicks off Saturday, August 28, and now is the time to study some early betting lines for the opening week. COVID-19 kind of ravaged the 2020 NCAA season, and while some teams played incomplete schedules (if they even played at all), it seems to be all systems go for programs across the country in 2021.

Part of this betting strategy is to jump and/or wait on some spreads for Week 1 odds in the NCAA before the general public remembers football is coming. The goal is to get closing line value and get the best possible number for whichever side you choose. For football betting, this is imperative for long term success.

Before I identify two key games I’m monitoring for line movement, check out the full NCAA Football Week 1 odds if you want to tail these bets.

Here are two NCAA spreads from Week 1 I’m following and/or betting before the lines start to move at places like BetMGM Sportsbook:

NCAA Football Week 1 Best Bets

North Carolina (-5) vs. Virginia Tech (BetMGM)

After a barnburner of a shootout last year with the Hokies, North Carolina is going back to Virginia Tech this year. The Tar Heels opened as 6-point favorites, but the line has since moved to -5. I’m suggesting you grab the Tar Heels now before the spread moves again as I anticipate this line to shift to -6.5 by kickoff. 

The Tar Heels had one of their best games offensively of the season last year vs. V-Tech, putting up 56 points and just under 400 yards rushing. Each year Mack Brown has been coach of the Tar Heels, their win record and performance has steadily improved. UNC finished 8-4 in 2020 and made it to the Orange Bowl before getting walloped by Texas A&M. With Heisman Trophy hopeful QB Sam Howell under center, this offense is explosive (ranked ninth in points per game last year) and UNC should win this game by double-digits. 

The Hokies defense leaves a lot to be desired and while they’ll likely put up a fight playing in front of their home fans, the fact remains they gave up 35 or more points in five of their last six games to close the 2020 season. Not good, Bob!

Miami (+17.5) vs. Alabama (BetMGM)

This is one where bettors should actually wait until closer to kickoff before trying to fade Alabama. The spread should move closer into the Crimson Tide’s favor as more public money comes in on them and sportsbooks will need to shift the line. I’ll probably get hammered for fading ‘Bama in any way shape or form but I expect this spread to move closer to -18.5 by Sept. 3. That said, for a Week 1 game and other betting circumstances, even +17.5 feels like too many points to give to the Miami Hurricanes on their home field.

The Crimson Tide are essentially an NFL talent factory, but we can’t just gloss over that nearly every top offensive skill-position player left the program in the 2021 NFL Draft. New QB starter Bryce Young is largely unproven and will be starting his first game in Miami. Alabama has gotten better recently with the evaluation of quarterbacks, but it wasn’t that long ago that QB was typically the weakness on the Tide’s roster.

The WR starters of John Metchie III and Slide Bolden are going to be impactful as Bama’s top two wideouts but again, most of their production so far in college has been as secondary receivers, not as the top dogs.

The key to this bet is how much of an improvement did D’Eriq King make in the offseason. The Hurricanes QB was electric when he wasn’t playing against ranked teams but when he actually faced high-end competition in the ACC like Clemson or North Carolina, he looked like he didn’t belong on the same field.

With Miami being fully healthy and getting an entire offseason to study and breakdown tape on Alabama tendencies, I predict the Tide getting a scrap of a game from the Hurricanes and hanging onto win instead of blowing them out like the spread indicates.