MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
The Big Ten is kicking off Week 1 with several massive showdowns that could determine how the final standings stack up at the end of the season. A premier battle on Saturday features Big Ten West favorite Iowa and the competitive Indiana Hoosiers. Can the road underdogs knock off Kirk Ferentz’s Hawkeyes?
It certainly won’t be easy. Each team has their own clear strengths and it’s possible a small wrinkle could disrupt an entire gameplan. Two solid coaching staffs will be under the microscope as each team has a small margin for error.
We’re breaking down key Week 1 games for the best odds, picks, and trends across the country. Check out our picks to make sure you’re profiting as much as you can.
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Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers Week 1 odds
Here is a look at the Week 1 betting odds between Iowa and Indiana, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Iowa -3.5 (-105)
- Over 45 (-105)/Under 45(-115)
- Moneyline: Indiana +150, Iowa -170
Iowa vs. Indiana game preview
Here’s a look at the preview between two Big Ten contenders Iowa and Indiana for Week 1.
Iowa offense vs. Indiana defense
Unfortunately, the least exciting part of this game is arguably the most crucial. The Iowa Hawkeyes know they need to run the ball and average around five yards per carry to win but were working with one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the country last year. This game may come down to whether Spencer Petras can up his game on a big stage if rusher Tyler Goodson faces stiff resilience from the Indiana front seven.
The Hoosiers have a terrific secondary so they can rely on their cornerbacks to win on isolated matchups. None of the Hawkeyes’ receivers are massive threats now that Ihmir Smith-Marsette has departed to the NFL, and this Hoosiers’ secondary performed well against better Ohio State playmakers in 2020. But they can’t lose focus.
If Iowa’s group of sophomore and junior blockers can withstand Indiana’s set of seniors and upper classmen throughout their front seven, the Hawkeyes will put up a big fight and own the clock. Anything less will leave them high and dry with scoring opportunities.
Indiana offense vs. Iowa defense
The Hoosiers’ offense lacked consistency passing the ball and finding chunk gains on the ground. That must change in 2021, and head coach Tom Allen took in several graduate transfers to help him out. The offensive line was bolstered by a graduate transfer at center and running back Stephen Carr.
Now Indiana has a must-watch trio of quarterback Michael Penix, receiver Ty Fryfogle and Carr. Each has fantastic playmaking ability for their position. The Hawkeyes must overcome each threat using a gang-defender approach, or else their individual talent will be exposed.
Penix can’t afford to be a 56% passer again in 2021 and it begins Week 1. He’s more accurate than that but had little help last season. Look for this unit to take what’s given to them more effectively than the big-play approach they relied upon last year.
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Betting trends for Iowa vs. Indiana
Iowa has dominated this matchup, winning seven of their last eight matchups against Indiana. But these Hoosiers have covered in eight of their last nine and won outright in six of eight. The total has gone over in each of their last six matchups in Iowa.
CFB betting picks – Iowa vs. Indiana
It’s hard for me to fully buy into Iowa’s profile. Their offense will produce on the ground but also so predictable that Indiana should be able to overcome some of the personnel disadvantage they have. I love Indiana’s ability to win this outright, but that’s also dependent on projecting Michael Penix’s ascent to his 2019 impact level.
This total is well set, so I’m simply taking the Hoosiers to cover on the road.
Best bets: Indiana +3.5
