Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The 2020 season brought confusion and uncertainty across the college football landscape. We saw the Big Ten scramble as much as any conference after deciding at the last moment possible to partake in the season. The result included favorites like Penn State and Michigan flailing, and Indiana rising as a true competitor.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
The Big Ten remains a strong conference as Ohio State heads the pack of solid teams. But there’s been a lack of a major threat in recent years as the Nittany Lions, Wolverines and Wisconsin Badgers have run into roadblocks as the Buckeyes continue building. It’s such a foregone conclusion for some oddsmakers that the Big Ten East doesn’t even have division-winner odds available.
We’re continuing our series of season previews with a team familiar with upsetting the favorites, the Iowa Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz and company are coming off a solid season and looking to continue building upwards. We’ll provide the best betting odds on futures picks and preview their season.
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Iowa Hawkeyes regular season wins
(O/U 8.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Big Ten West has one of the most interesting divisional races in the country. There’s no expectation a national championship contender will be developed among this group in 2021, but each team has a dynamic storyline in place. The two top West teams, Wisconsin (-115 at DraftKings to win) and Iowa (+190), were similar in 2020.
Iowa’s profile entering 2021 is less impressive than their 6-2 2020 record. It’s important to note Kirk Ferentz has reached at least eight wins each full season since 2014. So there’s a distinction that must be made that Iowa is a mediocre-ceiling but high-floor team.
Balancing Iowa’s predictable formula and consistent output along with the influx of youth and struggles of last year’s team is critical. We’ll start with the positives first.
The Hawkeyes know exactly who they are, and their team is built to do it well. The only real strength of the offense is running back Tyler Goodson. Goodson is a great talent who can slash his way to more than five yards per carry and also average over 10 yards per catch.
The offense revolves around Goodson and whoever will replace backup Mekhi Sargent. Chances are high either Ivory Kelly-Martin or Gavin Williams will do just fine as the new backup because the offensive line is able to humiliate their foes in the trenches. This bodes well for a high-floor team.
The defense as a whole is a strength as well. Last year’s team was fantastically stingy all-around. They allowed a measly 313.8 yards per-game and 4.3 yards per-play. Nick Niemann and Daviyon Nixon were two stars in a talented and tough unit.
Unfortunately, both are gone, along with 38% of their 2020 production. The defense is in better shape as every starter besides LEO Jestin Jacobs is an upperclassman. But someone must step up as their leading returning sack artist had just 3.5 sacks last year.
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The already-poor passing game will be especially crucial for their upside. I’m bearish that Iowa’s passing game will improve. Quarterback Spencer Petras was barely playable, completing 57% of his passes for 6.4 yards per attempt. His stature may be huge, but the sophomore has to do more than simply look the part in 2021.
The team’s fourth-leading receiver last year assumes the top spot this year. This is a huge red flag about Iowa’s ability to hang with the conference’s premier foes. I continue to come back to the question of who will create separation for the team’s inaccurate quarterback?
Overall, Iowa has an unattractive schedule and profile. They start the season with Indiana and Iowa State, then face Penn State and Wisconsin in October. 8.5 wins is a well-set line as they may be favored in every other game, and Ferentz continually outperforms their paper profile.
However, the severe limitations of the Hawkeyes roster will keep them well away from the Big Ten West divisional title and hitting the under on their team wins total.
Our pick: Under 8.5 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
