NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The first month of the college football season is already nearing its end and we’ve seen a ton of changes throughout the landscape. Blue blood programs Ohio State and Clemson lost to Oregon and Georgia, respectively, and Alabama continues to roll. Oregon, Iowa and Cincinnati all find themselves firmly in the college football playoff race.
All of this affects the 2021 Heisman Trophy race. It’s time to start evaluating the best odds on the board so we can get value. Preseason plays like DJ Uiagalelei and D’Eriq King are basically off the board and others are hanging on by a thread.
We’re going to cover who is the best favorite right now, the fading candidates to avoid, and the longshots to consider laying partial units on. Let’s dive in.
Heisman Trophy favorites after Week 3
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
(+200, DraftKings Sportsbook)
We have a new Heisman favorite, folks. On the heels of his incredible seven-touchdown performance against Tulane, Corral is quickly accumulating massive numbers. He’s completed almost 69% of his passes for 997 yards, 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and has another 158 yards and 5 scores on the ground.
Without question, Corral is a good, dynamic playmaker. But it’s also fair to say he’s played a bad Louisville defense, Austin Peay and Tulane. He’s set to face Alabama Oct. 2, then Arkansas Oct. 9, Auburn Oct. 30 and Texas A&M Nov. 13. He’ll have to be a star in at least two, if not all four of those games.
The more likely scenario is Corral is stunted against Alabama and Texas A&M in some form and his odds of winning the Heisman drop at that time. I’ll slow-play Corral for now since I’m confident his odds will pay off better down the line.
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
(+225, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I thought it was silly to bet on Young when he was the favorite this offseason, and generally speaking, I was right. His odds haven’t changed significantly almost one month into the season since he was already considered a favorite. He’s accumulated 804 passing yards on 68% completion rate for 10 touchdowns already through three games.
Unlike Corral, Young has done it against a couple of known programs. Miami’s defense stinks, but the performance looked better at the time. Florida is more than respectable and Young was solid. Young could almost default to the winner if he can continue this pace, and he should be able to.
The only tough defenses he’s set to face are at Texas A&M Oct. 9 and at Auburn at the end of the year. He’s a safe, solid bet, and his odds aren’t likely to get too much worse without losing all steam as a candidate. I recommend putting a unit on Young if you held off earlier.
Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
(+1800, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I put Ridder above other quarterbacks in this range because his team will most likely win out after escaping Indiana with a big victory. Ridder is flawed, including inconsistent accuracy and a strange tendency to disappear at times. But his opportunity and story propels him higher than his peers as the playoff race is also open.
Ridder needs to catch fire and average three or more total touchdowns every week from here out. With Young and Corral on blazing pace against better competition, voters need to see exciting big plays and stat lines from the senior passer. I won’t be betting on Ridder, but I like the Bearcats to fight for a playoff seed.
Fading Heisman Trophy plays after Week 3
Spencer Rattler, QB, Oklahoma
(+1800, DraftKings Sportsbook)
There’s just something missing whenever I watch Rattler play. He’s throwing underneath more this year than last season, increasing his completion rate to an astounding 74.7%, but his Heisman odds depend on those insane downfield passes that conjure Patrick Mahomes comparisons. Oklahoma is a good team but clearly vulnerable thus far, and Rattler is part of the reason why.
I wonder if some of this has to do with Sooner fatigue in the Heisman race after Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray won it back-to-back. I was fading Rattler early in the year and now wouldn’t touch his odds unless Alabama falls soon.
CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
(+1800, DraftKings Sportsbooks)
One of the most interesting quarterback rooms in the country is facing a conundrum. Though Stroud won the job and has accumulated nice numbers on paper, his shoulder isn’t healthy, and he’s hurt the Buckeyes more than helped them over the last two weeks. His missed throws have hamstrung the Buckeyes and they appear more like a three-loss team than title contender with Stroud playing.
I’ve talked to some people around the program, and they agree the Buckeyes should start looking at other options to take over for Stroud. All of this is to say, obviously you don’t want to bet on Stroud to win the Heisman.
Notable Heisman Trophy longshots after Week 3
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
(+4000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Willis is the best overall quarterback in college. The Liberty playmaker has started 2021 on fire, completing 71% of passes for 8.9 yards per attempt and seven touchdowns. He’s also added 225 yards and four scores on the ground.
However, the tower to climb to win the Heisman at Liberty is unprecedented in the modern landscape. With a showdown against Matt Corral and Ole Miss Nov. 6 looming, Willis must be brilliant in every game this year, including that one. Even then, other candidates probably need to disappoint.
His pathway is not great for Willis’s Heisman odds but excellent for his NFL Draft stock.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State
(+5000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
It’s rare for backs to win the Heisman in the modern era, but 2021 might be the right time. We have a couple of excellent producers, including CFB’s leading rusher, Walker. He’s been a huge part of Michigan State’s resurgence in 2021 as they sit 3-0.
Walker answered the call against solid foes Northwestern and Miami with 436 yards and five total scores. He’s yet to face Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State, but great performances to close out the year could swing odds in his favor. I’d consider this bet if he’s still on a roll in late October.
Blake Corum, RB, Michigan
(+7500, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Speaking of Michigan, tailback Corum has been excellent as the Wolverines have been a pleasant surprise. Corum is the third-leading rusher in the country with 407 yards and seven touchdowns on only 48 carries. The short but strongly built back has shown a lot more explosiveness than anyone expected after a sluggish freshman season in 2020.
The Michigan brand can give Corum more credit than many of his peers. Can the program win 10 games on his back and prop Corum up enough to get to New York? These odds are really juicy for a small play.
