We are headed into Week 6 of the college football season, and we have seen the Heisman odds change significantly. The Heisman chatter has already reached a boiling point, and there is relevant news that we need to parse through in order to understand where the value has shifted. There is far more edge betting on Heisman futures in-season than in the beginning of the year, which is fairly typical but is especially true in the 2024 campaign.
Let’s take a look at where the Heisman odds stand coming out of Week 5 and highlight the biggest risers as well those that have fallen since our last update.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Heisman Trophy Odds and Best Bets
Jalen Milroe, Alabama
Last update: +700
This week: +250
Milroe has gone through some ups and downs in his career, but he is completely dialed in for the 2024 season thus far. He has completed 72.9% of his passes for 964 yards and 10 touchdowns with 1 interception. He is averaging 11.3 YPA on his throws, which is the fourth-best mark in all of college football. Additionally, he has rushed for 273 yards and scored 8 times on the ground. Needless to say, he is going to have a monster season, statistically speaking.
His overall performance against Georgia was legendary, and the Tide were able to hang on to the victory despite the Bulldogs’ late comeback efforts. We aren’t used to seeing Georgia’s defense get carved up, but that’s exactly what Milroe did when he completed 81.8% of his 33 pass attempts for 374 yards. He was unstoppable on the ground as well, crossing 100 rushing yards.
Last update, I wrote the following:
“He has shaken off whatever confidence issues may have existed from the past and looks extremely poised every time he steps onto the field. He is rising up the Heisman rankings and may not be better than 7-to-1 odds the rest of the season.”
Milroe is now atop the Heisman odds board at +250. It will be interesting to see if the coaching staff turns him loose in a likely blowout against Vanderbilt, but any potential betting value has been zapped away for now.
Cam Ward, Miami FL
Last update: +550
This week: +500
In my last update, I wrote:
“The Hurricanes signal-caller sits atop the Heisman odds over on DraftKings Sportsbook which shouldn’t be surprising to anyone. When he decided to transfer from Washington State in the offseason, he joined the perfect program for his playstyle. Miami is littered with weapons at all of the skill positions which further strengthens his ability to put up numbers.”
Things have changed slightly, as Jalen Milroe leapfrogged him as the new favorite to win the Heisman, but Ward’s odds aren’t getting worse. He was around +2500 just two months ago and has fully capitalized on this Hurricanes system to become one of the best QBs in the entire country.
He has thrown for 1,782 yards and a whopping 18 touchdowns with 4 interceptions. He has further developed his dual-threat skills, which were on full display in a close win over Virginia Tech last week. He has now rushed for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground.
To stay in the Heisman race, you simply have to deliver high-quality performances each and every week regardless of the situation. Ward has continued to do so with 300+ passing yards and 3+ touchdowns in five straight games.
Ashton Jeanty, Boise State
Last update: +2000
This week: +1000
In my prior update, I wrote:
“A running back hasn’t won the Heisman since 2015 when King Henry did so as a member of the Alabama Crimson Tide. This is considered a “Quarterback’s Award,” but Jeanty will challenge that notion this year. Grab this value while you still can because he is going to break the spirit of many Mountain West defenses going forward.”
Hopefully you guys took that advice because Jeanty’s odds are now 10-to-1. In a decisive 45-24 win over Washington State, he rushed for 259 yards and 4 touchdowns on 26 carries which equates to a jaw-dropping YPC of 10.
He has piled up 845 yards on the ground with a ridiculous 13 touchdowns through four games. These are the numbers that most people would consider a great season. A lot can happen between now and December, but if he maintains this pace he would be well over 2,400 yards which would put him in Barry Sanders or Melvin Gordon territory for best individual season ever.
Avery Johnson, Kansas State
Last update: +4000
This week: +8000
The amazing performance by Jalen Milroe last week against Georgia has shifted the Heisman race dramatically. Multiple players who are still technically in the race have been pushed down because of the way that Bama game played out. Avery Johnson is one of my favorite long shots to bet, and the dual-threat QB has a legitimate shot to be at the ceremony at the end of the season.
The Big 12 is wide open after Utah lost to Arizona last week. Kansas State bounced back in a big way after an embarrassing Week 4 loss to BYU. The Wildcats offense was incredible in the 42-20 beatdown of the Cowboys.
Johnson was crisp with 259 yards through the air and 60 on the ground while scoring five total touchdowns (3 passing/2 rushing). Johnson is more known for his rushing ability but has shown vast improvement as a passer this year. He is completing 61.1% of his passes for 879 yards and 9 TDs. He is still devastating on the ground, having racked up 321 rushing yards.
My Top 5 Heisman Rankings (after Week 5)
Last update
- Cam Ward
- Jaxson Dart
- Jalen Milroe
- Nico Iamaleava
- Ashton Jeanty
This week
- Jalen Milroe
- Cam Ward
- Ashton Jeanty
- Jaxson Dart
- Nico Iamaleava