First look at Week 1 Prices – CFB DFS Picks

If you’re active on DFS twitter or avidly peruse the DK Lobby, you may have noticed that the college football Week 1 slate is now up on DraftKings, salaries posted and all. This was an aggressive move, as Sept. 4 is more than two weeks away. Plenty can change due to depth chart battles and injuries, and there’s an entire slate of games happening the week prior.

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But since we have been starved for CFB since DeVonta Smith hung a legendary first half on the Buckeyes in January, let’s dive into what jumps out right away. 

As always, we’ll start by looking at the spreads and totals for each game, and dive into more detail on what spots are best to attack.

There’s not a ton to get excited about, as is often the case early in the season with one-sided affairs dominating the slate. It’s worth noting that we shouldn’t overlook the Iowa State/Northern Iowa game as there isn’t yet a reliable number, but I would expect that to come in somewhere around Iowa State -26.5 with an O/U of 53.5. The blowouts can still be places to look for DFS if production is concentrated enough and early enough in the game, and you can also look to lower-priced backups who may see extended garbage time run. So let’s dive into some players in good spots at each position.

(Check out Ian Wharton’s primer for building college football DFS lineups on DraftKings.)

Quarterback

If you’re new to CFB DFS, you can (and often should) play a second quarterback in your superflex spot, so there is more to lineup construction than picking the single best QB on the day. Some options to look at initially are below.

Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma ($9,700)

Where better to start than with the presumptive Heisman Trophy winner and first overall pick? At $9,700, Rattler is the most expensive QB on the slate and certainly has the highest floor, the only question is does the lopsided spread (largest on the slate) give him enough ceiling to justify paying up. Given that he is unlikely to have to do much on the ground and that QB rushing makes up for an outsized amount of QB production in CFB as compared to its NFL counterparts, I’m not sold on his ceiling, especially in GPP. Much of this analysis also applies to Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder, who derives even more of his value from rushing which he likely won’t do much of in a less competitive match up. 

Texas QB1 Texas (Casey Thompson $7,100, Hudson Card $6,900)

There’s a battle in Austin for the most prestigious job in all of Texas, and as of now Hudson Card appears to be edging out Casey Thompson ever so slightly. If Card is who Steve Sarkisian elects to go with, get ready for fireworks. A converted wide receiver, Card is plenty athletic and will have a talented group of receivers to work with in Joshua Moore, Jordan Whittington and speedy freshman Xavier Worthy. With Thompson ($7,100) and Card ($6,900) so close in price, if a clear winner is determined and expected to get the whole game’s worth of QB reps, they should be a starting point in every lineup you make. 

Levi Lewis, ULL ($7,100)

One of the more experienced QBs on the slate and in all of college football, and a longtime DFS darling, Lewis embodies everything we want to see in CFB QBs. He is in a game with a high total, his team is a sizable dog so he will be in positive game script, his O-Line will be overmatched so there will be plenty of opportunity for him to scramble (he is very much a scrambler), and he doesn’t lock on to a single WR, making it possible for us to play him without pairing him with any of his underwhelming WR options. If you’re running out Texas stacks with QB1 and one or more WR, you’re definitely going to want to at least think about running it back with Lewis. 

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Running back

While there’s no screaming value at RB, there’s plenty of guys with safe floors, and that’s who we’ll focus on here until some value emerges as the slate nears. 

Breece Hall, Iowa State ($9,000)

So yes, Hall is more than a 20-point favorite going up against a cupcake and won’t see much if any work in the second half. But he is also arguably the best RB in the country and a Heisman candidate, so if Iowa State wants to showcase him, they may wait a little longer than they otherwise would to take the foot off the gas. If he gets 25-plus touches, odds are he will break one and pay off a good amount of his salary on a single play. If he does it twice, you’re likely toast if you don’t have him. Pay for the floor, stay for the ceiling.

Bijan Robinson, Texas ($7,400)

I can’t think of a single reason why you wouldn’t play Robinson. With Sark already having committed to a 20-touch floor for the back, and the immense talent that was on display at the end of last season (9-172-3 vs. K State followed by 10-183-1 in the Alamo Bowl vs. Colorado) will now have immense opportunity. When this much opportunity and talent get together, the result is very likely going to be an explosion of fantasy points. 

Brian Robinson Jr., Alabama ($6,500)

When in doubt at RB, just take a “B. Robinson.” While Najee Harris’ departure leaves some awfully big shoes to fill, RB1 at Alabama is about as secure a role for production as it gets in CFB. What isn’t as secure is Robinson’s role. The Tuscaloosa native has certainly been patient, and as a redshirt senior, is finally ready to make the most of his opportunity. While he won’t have nearly as much of the backfield share as Harris did, his frame, style and frankly program loyalty will likely keep him involved more often than not around the goal line. This price is plenty fair for the combo of floor and potential ceiling that Robinson offers, especially in presumptive starter Bryce Young’s first game, where play calling will likely trend conservative and lean heavily on the rushing attack.

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Wide receiver

You may have noticed everyone I’ve listed so far is pretty expensive for their position. That’s not just a function of this slate — you tend to see more values at WR than QB and RB since there is usually far less depth chart certainty at the WR position. We’ll try to nail some value plays, as well as provide a safer but more expensive name. 

Jaden Walley, Mississippi State ($6,900)

A PPR dynamo and staple of Mike Leach’s Air Raid, Walley is back for his second season and ready to show off his chemistry with QB Will Rogers. Operating primarily from the slot, his low aDOT and high-percentage targets against on overmatched Louisiana Tech defense should lead to an extremely productive day, and if he’s able to hit paydirt it will be the icing on the cake.

Xavier Worthy, Texas ($4,700)

You’d be hard pressed to find more buzz about another true freshman having a bigger impact this summer than Worthy. Originally a Michigan commit, Worthy has received lavish praise from players and coaches alike for his performance in camp thus far. Worthy has a small frame and excellent speed, built from the DeSean Jackson mold, and is fully capable of beating a very beatable LA Tech secondary. He likely won’t be a high-volume pass catcher just yet in this offense, but he will likely do plenty with the touches he does get. 

Jadon Haselwood, Oklahoma ($4,500)

It’s been a tough go of it so far for Haselwood at Oklahoma. Playing second fiddle to CeeDee Lamb in 2019 and then being injured in 2020, he hasn’t really had his moment yet. Further, with recent tradition of the Oklahoma WR1 being an absolute alpha (Kyler Murray and Marquise Brown followed by Jalen Hurts and CeeDee Lamb), the debate was whether Haselwood or Charleston Rambo would step up in 2020 to become Spencer Rattler’s alpha. The answer was neither, and Rattler spread the ball around, connecting most frequently with Marvin Mims somewhat by default as Rambo fell out of favor and Haselwood was hurt. With Rambo now in Coral Gables, and Mims the lead dog in name only, the big-bodied Haselwood has every opportunity to reclaim his once lauded alpha WR status. For Week 1 in particular — where we see a massive pricing discrepancy between Mims at $7,700 and Haselwood at only $4,500 — I will be much heavier on Haselwood than I will be on Mims.