Conference Championship Bets

Every year I like to do some modest bets on conference champions and conference championship game appearances. The reason I say modest is because these will be smaller bets with the goal of hitting one or two to make a profit. If none of them hit, then you don’t lose as much in the grand scheme of things. 

For those who follow me on Twitter (@MidMajorMatt), last year I had Toledo and Troy as conference champs and made a profit. As a matter of fact, I’ve picked the MAC champion two straight years and nearly had three other winners in 2021. With that, let’s take a look at some potential plays for this coming season.

Pittsburgh to make the ACC title game 

(12 to 1, BetMGM)

As I mentioned in my preview, the Panthers are like ninjas in that they do all their work in relative silence. The team lost a lot of talent on defense to the NFL, so that’s a concern, but Pat Narduzzi has done very good things with that side of the ball after a rocky start to his time at the school. Pittsburgh avoids Miami and Clemson while getting Florida State and North Carolina at home. Their toughest road trip is probably Wake on October 21 or Duke on November 25. I really think there is a chance they finish with one or two conference losses and an appearance in the ACC title game.

Florida Atlantic to make the AAC title game 

(+280, DraftKings)

The Owls are coached by Tom Herman who has done very good things early on in both of his previous stops so far in his coaching career. FAU has 18 starters back, a capable quarterback in Casey Thompson of Nebraska and a defense that’s pretty experienced. Schedule-wise they avoid SMU and Memphis and get UTSA and Tulane at home. FAU has some tricky road games at USF, UAB and Rice, but their away contests are very winnable. I think if they survive the stretch of Clemson and Illinois on the road injury-wise, this team could certainly find its way into the title matchup.

San Jose State to make the Mountain West title game 

(+550, DraftKings)

The Spartans had a solid season last year going 7-5 overall with three of those losses coming in conference play. They return pretty much all of the key pieces to the offense including signal-caller Chevan Cordeiro, who had 23 touchdown passes to just six interceptions. The massive concern is the defense that lost their front line that produced most of the team’s sacks last year. Schedule-wise, San Jose State hosts San Diego State, Fresno State and Air Force while playing at Boise State. There’s a very tricky road game at New Mexico on October 14 which comes after the Falcons and Broncos contests, so focus could be an issue. Still, I think the defense will get better and the offense will continue to roll in 2023.

Best of the Rest

There are two other teams I’m heavily considering as well although the schedule doesn’t favor them. Team one is Miami (OH) to win the MAC East division at +360 on DraftKings. 

The hope for the Redhawks is that Brett Gabbert stays healthy all season unlike last year. If he does go down, all the experience Aveon Smith got last year will potentially help him in 2023. Miami (OH) has Toledo at home and a road trip to Ohio, who represents the biggest challenge in the division. The rest of the slate is pretty manageable, but it’s a concern that they get those two opponents when the Bobcats don’t play the Rockets. 

Another bet is Georgia Southern in the loaded Sun Belt East division  at +600 on Draftkings. 

I love the potential for the Eagles, but they have to play at JMU, Marshall and App State which is a concern. Their offense is capable of scoring 30+ points on almost any given night, but their defense is capable of giving up that much as well.

Finally, I think there’s some value in wagering on the Conference USA title game appearance market. Western Kentucky should be in it, and most people think Liberty could be their opponent. To me, I’m deciding between UTEP (+350, DraftKings) and Middle Tennessee (+190, DraftKings). The Miners get to host WKU and the Flames but also have tricky road games at Jacksonville State, who I like, and MTSU. They have a really solid offense led by Gavin Hardison at quarterback and a pretty good defense with seven starters back. 

The Blue Raiders are led more by their defense which will have to carry the load at times because their QB play is relatively unimpressive. If they can settle on a quarterback, then they could be really tough. Schedule-wise, they play at WKU and Liberty mid-weeks but also host UTEP and Louisiana Tech. You could put half a unit on both teams and hope that at least one makes it.