Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Another season of college football is upon us, and in addition to covering DFS and PrizePicks, I will be releasing a couple of weekly betting articles. The purpose of this writeup is to highlight some of my favorite college football games to bet on, my reasoning for picking said game and directing you to the site with the softest line.
Let’s take a look below at my favorite spots to attack for Week 2.
Baylor Bears vs. BYU Cougars
10:15 p.m. ET Saturday
BYU -4, O/U 53.5, DraftKings Sportsbook
Both teams are coming off victories in their Week 1 matchups and thus coming into Week 2 feeling confident. Baylor defeated BYU 38-24 last year but now they’re going on the road, which is always tougher. The line opened at -3.5 and it has since pushed to -4, but I’m actually leaning toward the road underdog here.
I have a lot of faith in this Baylor team this year despite going through a complete rebuild at the running back position. There is reason for excitement in Waco as the team turned to Blake Shapen as their new QB this year and was extremely productive last week in a win against Albany 69-10. He completed 17 of his 20 passes for 214 yards/2 TDs while also rushing for a score. He seemingly has built an instant connection with wideout Monaray Baldwin (4-84-1) and the running game will still be strong as ever despite some new faces in place.
BYU has electric weapons as well with dual-threat QB Jaren Hall, dependable rushing duo Christopher Brooks/Lopini Katoa and swiss army knife Puka Nacua forming an offense that packs a serious punch. Despite this, Baylor will be in a position cover and possibly even win outright thanks to their strong offensive line and great chemistry across both sides of the ball.
Betting Trends
- As underdogs of 2.5 points or greater, Baylor had a 3-1 record against the spread.
- Baylor won five of their six games as underdogs in 2021.
Best Bet
Baylor +4
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Michigan Wolverines
8 p.m. ET Saturday
Michigan -51.5, O/U 67, DraftKings Sportsbook
This spread is ridiculous upon first glance, as it’s incredibly tough for any team to cover 51.5 points regardless of how big the talent gap is. This is the largest spread in Michigan football history, and I’m banking on the fact that the Wolverines will be calling off the dogs before the end of the third quarter, which would mean lots of ball control running offense throughout the second half.
JJ McCarthy will be getting the start this week for Michigan as Jim Harbaugh gives him his shot to win the job outright after Cade McNamara started in Week 1. They will give him his chance in the first half, but there is simply no reason to risk injury in a game like this once it quickly gets out of hand. The Wolverines feature a strong group of running backs in Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards and CJ Stokes. Look for all three of them to light it up this week and melt the clock away while doing it.
Hawaii has one dependable weapon right now in Dedrick Parson. He has rushed for 111 yards and 2 TDs while catching 6 passes for 32 yards in Week 1. He is good enough to punch it into the end zone once or twice in this game to keep the cover alive.
Betting Trends
- Michigan was 11-3 against the spread last year, but obviously none of those numbers were this high.
Best Bet
Hawaii +51.5
Louisville Cardinals vs. UCF Knights
7:30 p.m. ET Friday
UCF -5.5, O/U 61.5, DraftKings Sportsbook
Despite most of the games this week being on Saturday, we still get a little bit of weekday football with two Friday. One of these is a goldmine for fans of high-octane offense as both Louisville and UCF feature spectacular options at the skill positions.
Louisville was shockingly defeated on the road against what many considered to be an inferior Syracuse team while UCF slapped around FCS foe South Carolina State. We can’t exactly glean too much from the Knights’ beatdown of an FCS opponent, and this feels like a classic overreaction spot. The Cardinals are much better than they looked on against Syracuse, and I know a road game at the Bounce House doesn’t exactly scream bounceback. However, Malik Cunningham didn’t suddenly forget how to play football and is still widely considered one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in all of college football.
These two teams played last year, with Louisville winning in a thriller 42-35. Malik Cunningham showed off his impressive talents by throwing for 265 yards/2 TDs and rushing for 99 yards/1 TD. That ability should be on full display as it seems highly unlikely Cunningham plays as horrifically as he did last week against the Orange when he failed to eclipse 200 yards through the air or 40 yards on the ground.
UCF counters with an electric dual threat of their own in Ole Miss transfer QB John Rhys Plumlee. He threw for over 300 yards and 4 TDs while also rushing for 86 yards/1 TD. Again, we must temper expectations slightly as it was against subpar competition, but this does lead me to be extraordinarily interested in the total of this game. Currently it sits at 61.5, which is definitely high but I’m fully expecting video game-esque scoring to ensue.
Further pushing the over 61.5 total into play is the fact that Louisville had five possessions inside the Syracuse 40 but could only generate one score which shows you the turnovers crushed them badly. However, the offense is capable of getting deep into opposing territory and if they can cut back on mistakes and finish drives this total is absolutely live.
Betting Trends
- UCF is 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games against the spread when favored by 6.5 or more points.
- Louisville was 2-2 against the spread last year as underdogs of 5.5 or more points.
Best Bet
Louisville +5.5 and OVER 61.5 Total Points as a SGP with a solid +264 odds.
