NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Everyone is going to focus on the Power 5 conference title games Friday and Saturday, but some of the best football will be played in the Group of 5. Let’s take a look at what is at stake in these games and who may have the advantage.
All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Conference USA
New Mexico State at Liberty
7 p.m. ET Friday
Liberty -10.5
These two played way back in Week 3 in Lynchburg, with the home team winning 33-17. Kaidon Salter had two rushing and two passing touchdowns as the Flames pulled away in the second half shutting out NMSU. The Aggies are extremely hot right now, having won eight straight, including victories at Western Kentucky and Auburn. The Flames have gone unbeaten during the regular season, but with the easiest schedule in the country. I’ve doubted them a lot this season, and they’ve destroyed almost every opponent with just two games ending in single digit margins. There’s a chance based off the CFP rankings that if Liberty wins and Tulane loses, they may be the NY6 team from the G5.
MAC (Ford Field, Detroit)
Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo
Noon ET Saturday
Toledo -7.5
Week 8 had these two play in Oxford, with the Rockets holding on 21-17 in a game that saw them get shut out in the second half. This was Brett Gabbert’s final regular season game, giving way to Aveon Smith. Dequan Finn accounted for all three Toledo touchdowns with two passing and one rushing. These two teams were toward the top of the preseason odds to make the MAC title game. Toledo went 11-1 with the lone loss coming in Week 1 against Illinois in heartbreaking fashion. Miami-Ohio went 10-2 with their other loss coming against Miami way back in Week 1 as well. This feels like just a bit too many points as the Redhawks defense has held five straight opponents under 20 points.
Mountain West
Boise State at UNLV
3 p.m. ET Saturday
Boise State -2
Before I get into the game, I think it’s disgraceful that they went to the computers to decide a three-way tie, leaving out the hottest team of the group San Jose State. These two haven’t played since 2019 when Boise won 38-13 in Vegas as a 23-point favorite. This year’s version of the Broncos is 7-5, winning four of their last five down the stretch. Taylen Green is back under center full time with the injury to Maddux Madsen. UNLV lost to the aforementioned Spartans, but they went 9-3 overall and was one of Michigan’s early victims. The offense has carried them with a solid RB room and a great group of WRs.
AAC
SMU at Tulane
4 p.m. ET Saturday
Tulane -4
SMU would like to forget their last matchup with the Green Wave, when they lost 59-24 last year in New Orleans. The 2023 version of the Mustangs is smoking hot offensively, scoring 30 or more in eight straight. The good thing for them is that Tulane is beatable through the air, although without Preston Stone, who knows what we will get from the Mustangs and Kevin Jennings. SMU’s defense gets a lot of headlines, but the unit gave up 34 at Memphis, 31 at Rice and 34 at TCU, so it may not be as good as people think. There was some worry about Tulane’s offense with Tyjae Spears going pro, but Makhi Hughes has filled in very nicely and Michael Pratt continues to play well after a stellar 2022 campaign.
Sun Belt
App State at Troy
4 p.m. ET Saturday
Troy -6.5
James Madison wins this game, but the NCAA is a horrible organization, so the Dukes have to watch this game at home. These two last played early in 2022 as App State won 32-28 at home as a double-digit favorite. The Mountaineers have won five in a row entering this one including spoiling College Gameday in Harrisonburg two weeks ago. Joey Aguilar has been incredible under center with 33 touchdowns to nine interceptions having been sacked just 13 times in 389 attempts. Kimani Vidal should have a huge game though as App State’s rush defense is rather porous. Troy hasn’t lost since Sept. 16 when JMU beat them 16-14 at home. Their defense has been tremendous, allowing 24 points or more to just two FBS opponents.
