Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 10 of the college football season is upon us, and now bowl eligibility and conference title hopes come into play.
You’ll start to see some teams fall off as they realize their preseason goals can’t be attained, while others continue to push toward a postseason berth. This presents great opportunities for betting. Let’s take a look at this week.
Letdown Spot
Arizona State at Utah (-11)
2 p.m. ET
Utah is coming off getting blasted at home against Oregon 35-6. Their Pac-12 title hopes took a massive hit with the loss, and who knows how they’ll handle it. I love Kyle Whittingham as a coach, but with a road trip to Washington on deck off a tough loss, I wonder what we’ll see from the Utes. Arizona State may be 2-6, but they looked good in a 38-27 win over Washington State last week. I don’t expect Utah to lose two home games in a row, but they may be slightly hungover for this one.
Kansas at Iowa State (-2.5)
3:30 p.m. ET
The Jayhawks had the most impressive win of the week last week when they knocked off Oklahoma 38-33 on homecoming. They last beat the Sooners back in 1997 and had a massive party afterward on the field. Now the team has to refocus and play at Iowa State on Saturday. The Cyclones have won three straight and four of their last five, so they are playing good football. I fully expect Kansas to struggle mentally in this one.
Look-ahead Spot
Florida State (21.5) at Pittsburgh
Noon ET
The Seminoles are cruising with an 8-0 record. They are a double-digit favorite, but I definitely think one eye will be on their Week 11 matchup with rival Miami in Tallahassee. It’s the second straight road trip for FSU, which has actually played four times away from their own stadium. Standing in their way is Pittsburgh, who was pitiful in last week’s loss to Notre Dame. The quarterback position continues to be a problem, and bowl eligibility is most likely gone for them. Still, they rose up a few weeks ago beating Louisville at home in a rare offensive show. I don’t expect FSU to lose, but covering is a completely different story.
Penn State (-10.5) at Maryland
3:30 p.m. ET
The Nittany Lions looked distracted last week against Indiana and continue to look iffy at times on offense. They travel to Maryland to take on a Terps team that has to be embarrassed after losing to Northwestern. Maryland has lost three in a row, and with their remaining schedule, bowl eligibility is not a certainty. Penn State lost their first test 20-12 at Ohio State, so they definitely need to beat Michigan on Nov. 11 if they hope to make it to the conference title game and the CFP. It’s a large number on the road here, so just remember that the situation doesn’t favor PSU.
Purdue at Michigan (-32.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
Did you know Michigan may have been stealing signs? It’s the largest story of the college football season, and it came out during the Wolverines’ bye week, so there weren’t any results on the field to try to distract people. Of course, this team has two huge games this season, and one of them comes on Nov. 11 when they travel to Happy Valley to play Penn State. Purdue is this weekend’s opponent ,and they are 2-6 after losing 31-14 at Nebraska. Last year these two met in the conference title game, and the Wolverines won 43-22. I don’t see that score, but it’ll be interesting to see what the home team looks like.
Sandwich spot
California at Oregon (-24)
5:30 pm ET
The Ducks have to be feeling great after a thorough 35-6 win at Utah. They are still in the hunt for a national title and have everything in front of them. Coming up next week is a home game against USC, which may have two losses on the season but are still always a big game for the Ducks. This weekend they host California, which has been a pest despite having only three wins. They lost by one to USC last week and by 12 to Oregon State at home earlier this month. The back door may be open late.
Wake Forest at Duke (-12.5)
7:30 p.m. ET Thursday
The Blue Devils have had quite the past few weeks, losing at Florida State and Louisville, and now they have to get ready for Wake Forest on a short week. Duke’s two losses in the ACC don’t eliminate them yet, but a third one certainly will. They take on a Wake Forest team that has been a disappointment so far and has yet to recover from the loss of Sam Hartman. The Deacs lost 41-16 to Florida State and are now 1-4 in conference. Duke also has their rivalry contest in Chapel Hill in Week 11, so we’ll see how they look at home. This is their only game in Durham from Oct. 21 to Nov. 18.
Kentucky (-3) at Mississippi State
7:30 pm ET
The Wildcats offense was able to move the ball through the air, as Devin Leary threw for nearly 400 yards, but it all came in a 33-27 loss at home against Tennessee. That’s UK’s third loss in a row as Mississippi State comes to town. The Bulldogs saw a two-game win streak snapped last week in a 27-13 loss to Auburn. They’ve been generally unimpressive so far in SEC play, with the only win being 7-3 at Arkansas on Oct. 21. Kentucky could be looking ahead though to their Nov. 11 home matchup against Alabama, which is also Senior Day for the Wildcats.
Multiple spots
Miami (-4) at NC State
8 p.m. ET
Miami has played two straight overtime games and came out on top in both. We’ll see if that momentum continues in Raleigh where NC State is feeling good after a win over Clemson. Was that victory a product of better times ahead for the Wolfpack, or was it that Clemson is not very good? This is an opportunity for one of these teams to keep themselves in the ACC title race with two losses. Oh yeah, Miami has a huge road trip at Florida State on Nov. 11. Last year the Canes beat UVA 14-12 in four overtimes in the contest before their huge rivalry game. This contest will tell us a lot about both squads going forward.
