Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 13 of the college football season is here, and there are several interesting props, but there are two in particular that I’m going to focus on here. We have enough data and are dialed in when it comes to DVP spots at this stage of season.
Our featured picks were 2-0 last week, with Caden Durham and Ja’Corey Brooks both getting us to the window. Let’s take a look at our favorite Week 13 props.
Omarion Hampton (North Carolina) Over 118.5 Rushing Yards
(-117, Caesars)
This may look like a high number initially, but when you delve further into how this game will likely play out, it’s actually too low. Hampton is getting heavy volume with the Tar Heels, having toted the rock 25-plus times in three straight games. He has surpassed this number in six of his ten games played.
This prop would be +ev due to his volume alone, but it’s also a positive matchup as well. They’re playing a Boston College defense that has been shredded by RB1s in their last four games. Brashard Smith (120 yards/1 TD on 18 carries), LeQuint Allen (107 scrimmage yards/2 TDs), Isaac Brown (85 yards/2 TDs on 18 carries) and Bhayshul Tuten (266 yards/4 TDs on 18 carries) have all had major success against them. All of these backs got it done with efficiency but didn’t have the same heavy workload that Hampton is likely to get.
He racked up almost 250 yards on the ground against Wake Forest last week and I can’t wait to see what he does as an encore.
Tawee Walker (Wisconsin) Over 76.5 Rushing Yards
(-117, Caesars)
Walker’s been a revelation this year for the Badgers and the Oklahoma transfer has settled in nicely as the RB1. He has rushed for 773 yards and 10 TDs this season with YPC of 4.8. He has had a minimum of 16 carries in six straight games and beaten this number in four of them.
This sets up to be more of a physical game with Nebraska which is favorable for a bruising back like Walker. The Cornhuskers rush defense looks better on paper than it actually is because of their soft non-conference schedule. They have given up 100+ yards to an individual RB in two of their last four games. Justice Ellison (105 yards) and Woody Marks (146 yards) gave them real problems so this profiles as a great spot for Walker to succeed.
