Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rejoice Kentucky! The recent legalization of sports betting in KY means that members of the FTN community in the area can now take part in a growing industry.
We are going to help our Kentucky residents get started right away by providing some advantageous college football bets. This article will feature lines from Caesars and include local programs to make those games even more meaningful. Let’s take a look at our favorite bets to attack.
College Football Sports Betting in Kentucky
Louisville Cardinals vs. NC State Wolfpack
Spread: Louisville -3.5 (-105), NC State +3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Louisville -175, NC State +145
Total: Over 55.5 (-110), Under 55.5 (-110)
This is a great way to welcome sports betting into Kentucky as the Louisville Cardinals take on the NC State Wolfpack Friday night. The Cards roll into this one with a 4-0 record, after stomping Boston College 56-28. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack sit at 3-1 after holding off Virginia by a razor-thin margin of 24-21.
Louisville brought in Purdue’s Jeff Brohm to be their new head coach and it was widely expected that the team’s passing offense would get a major face lift. Brohm is an offensive maestro — his teams are known for scoring at will. However, transfer QB Jack Plummer has been erratic at times and the team has really leaned upon their running game, something that will be familiar to fans of the team.
It’s worth noting that Plummer hung 388 yards and 5 touchdowns on Boston College last week, but they’re going to be facing a much stingier pass defense in NC State. The Pack are surrendering less than 215 YPG through the air thus far. Look for the Cards to play a ball control style, which means plenty of touches for marquee running back Jawhar Jordan.
Jordan has been electric through his first four games of the season. He has racked up almost 500 rushing yards and scored a total of 7 touchdowns (6 rushing/1 passing). If the Cards are going to move the ball, it’s going to be through Jordan.
On the NC State side, QB Brennan Armstrong has reunited with his old offensive coordinator Robert Anae. Those two had a strong 2021 from a statistical standpoint with Armstrong turning in the best numbers of his career. So far, the offense hasn’t clicked to the level most expected but it’s certainly trending in the right direction.
While the Pack secondary is tough, the Cardinals have been relatively soft defensively when it comes to the passing game. Last week, BC’s Thomas Castellanos threw for 265 yards and scored 4 total TDs (3 passing/1 rushing). Prior to that, Indiana’s Tayven Jackson (299 passing yards) and Georgia Tech’s Haynes King (313 passing yards/3 TDs) found plenty of success against the Cardinals.
This leads us to my favorite bet of the game and possibly all of week 5. Brennan Armstrong’s passing yardage prop on Caesar’s is 242. He threw for 260-plus yards in only half of his games so far but I’m not wavering at all on this over. Looking at the production of less skilled quarterbacks against this Cardinals secondary, Armstrong will likely flirt with 300+ yards against them.
Best Bet
Brennan Armstrong Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Spread: Florida +1 (-110), Kentucky -1 (-110)
Moneyline: Florida +100, Kentucky -120
Total: Over 44.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-110)
This has the makings of a physical football game in which points and yards come at a premium. The Gators are giving up less than 250 YPG of total offense while the Wildcats are surrendering just under 300.
Kentucky’s offense with Devin Leary at the helm hasn’t been as elite as a lot of us expected, but it’s had its moments. They actually rank fifth in the country in pass completions of 50 yards or more. With weapons like Barion Brown (15-214-1), Dane Key (13-196-2) and Tayvion Robinson (16-283-3), it’s easy to see why they’ve found success with big plays.
The primary issue with Leary is that his timing has been way off, and his accuracy has suffered greatly because of it. There are murmurs of past injuries playing a part, but the team obviously needs him to bring his 58% completion rate way up.
The Wildcats running game pays the price for erratic passing as well. So far this season, their offensive line is generating only 2.6 yards per rush which is heinous when you consider they have Ray Davis in their backfield.
The Gators defense has only allowed 12 carries over 10 yards and just 4 over 20 yards. This really looks like it’s going to be a grind it out game and while Leary may find one of his receivers for a big play, the under is looking like the right move.
On the other side, the Gators have Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz at QB, a player with a reputation for being a game manager. Give me the under 44.5 with confidence.
Best Bet
Under 44.5
