College Football Mid-Major Best Bets (Week 9)

It’s Week 9e of the college football season, and the article continues to produce a winning record, as we are several games over .500. A lot of the success is coming from my two favorite markets in the sport, which are team totals and touchdown bets, found often on DraftKings Sportsbook. Finally this week we get a slate without a lot of weather issues as well, so that’s good.

With that, let’s take a look at my favorite plays for Saturday.

All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

Indiana at Penn State

Noon ET
PSU -32

The Nittany Lions are coming off a horrible 20-12 loss at Ohio State, but they still have a lot of their goals ahead of them to accomplish. Indiana is this week’s opponent in Happy Valley, and their season continues to spiral downward as they come off a bad 31-14 home loss to Rutgers. The team had played solid defense the first four weeks of the season, but has given up 44 at Maryland, 52 at Michigan and then the aforementioned number to the Scarlet Knights. Last year after losses, James Franklin’s team scored 45 vs. Minnesota and 45 at Indiana. There’s no real look-ahead spot here so a focused Penn State should run all over Indiana on Saturday.

Bet

Penn State over 4.5 TDs (-140) and/or over 38.5 points (-108) — the team total is for those who don’t have DraftKings to take the touchdown prop.

Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan

1 p.m. ET
WMU -2.5

Eastern Michigan covered last week once again as a road underdog. They hung tough with Northern Illinois as the defense continues to be awesome while the offense continues to struggle. The splits are amazing with this team averaging 16.1 pts per contest vs. FBS opponents while holding those same opponents to just 19 points per game on defense. This week they are an underdog once again at home to Western Michigan. The Eagles are 8-4-1 ATS the last seven seasons as a home dog. The Broncos have lost three straight and are 2-6 overall this season. They have not won a road game yet and even though the defense is improving, they still aren’t trustworthy. Give me EMU once again.

Bet

Eastern Michigan +3 (BetOnline — DraftKings has it at 2.5, so I’d buy the half point)

Tulane at Rice

4 p.m. ET
Tulane -10

Rice has been a pleasant surprise so far this season, starting out 4-3 with a large home game against Tulane coming up. One of the biggest differences in Rice is their quarterback play, which has been stabilized with JT Daniels under center. The unit has scored 30 or more four times this season while also putting up 29 at USF. Their defense has struggled against offenses with a pulse even giving up 38 to lowly UConn who doesn’t scare anyone. Tulane has scored 30 or more in four straight contests as Michael Pratt continues to be solid. Their defense is nowhere near as good as last year’s though and can be beaten through the air. Weather should be pretty good for plenty of offense from both sides.

Bet

Over 53

Air Force at Colorado State

7 p.m. ET
Air Force -14

This is not an official play as of yet, but I’m putting it on your radar as the total has fallen as the week has gone along. The reason for this is because of the snowy forecast. A lot of people blindly bet the under in this situation, which presents some value on the over. Air Force has one of the most efficient offenses in the country and when they get in the red zone, they are most likely scoring touchdowns. The Falcons won’t care about the snow and without much wind, they can still sprinkle in a few passes as well. Colorado State struggles to defend the run and could allow at least one long TD scamper. Their offense should definitely do its part with Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi under center. I can see them contributing a few touchdowns maybe. Wait as long as you can on this one and hope the forecast calls for a ton of snow because there will be value on the over.