College Football Mid-Major Best Bets (Week 1)

Week 1 of the college football season is here, and it’s not without some problems already. I’m a heavy team total guy when it comes to the sport, and the supposedly most reliable book for them, DraftKings Sportsbook, decided to take them down Thursday night and haven’t put them back up. They pulled this stuff last year, but it was toward the end of the season so we’re in a slight bit of a scramble mode. Still, there are two Group of Five teams that I think are getting too many points Saturday. 

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Toledo @ Illinois (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday)

Illinois -9

The Rockets went 9-5 last season and were champions of the MAC. Pretty much all of their key players from last year are back, including Dequan Finn, who was solid under center. Toledo lost their two toughest nonconference games last year, falling 77-21 at Ohio State as 31-point underdogs and 17-14 at San Diego State as three-point favorites. The Illini are a lot closer to the Aztecs level than the Buckeyes of last year entering this one. Illinois has six starters back on both sides of the ball, but they had a key departure in Ryan Walters, who went from their defensive coordinator to the head coach of Purdue. They also lost three of their top four tacklers as well as Chase Brown in the backfield. Under Brett Bielema, this team has a losing record against the spread as a home favorite and I think there’s a small chance that they lose this one outright so getting nine seems very nice. 

South Alabama @ Tulane (8 p.m. ET Saturday)

Tulane -7

This one is going to be on a lot of people’s cards and rightfully so. The Green Wave are coming off an impressive Cotton Bowl win over USC last year in which they got a lot of the spotlight in college football. Tulane is bringing back only six starters on offense with one of the departures being RB Tyjae Spears, who is in Tennessee now with the Titans. This means a little bit more for Michael Pratt, who was pretty solid as well last year. The Green Wave’s defense has eight starters back but they also lost their defensive coordinator, so we’ll see how that goes for them. The final factor on this side is that the home team gets Ole Miss at home in week two so could one eye be looking forward instead of in the present. The Jaguars have 18 starters back from a team that went 10-3 with one of those losses being by one at UCLA 32-31. I really like Carter Bradley at quarterback, and he’s got a great offensive line and almost all of his skill guys with him. The defense is experienced and a little bit of a worry which is why I bought the half point to get the even seven. Sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well.