College Football Games of the Week: Week 13

This week we are looking at the biggest matchups that provide us with the best moneymaking opportunities across college football. After breaking down this week’s best games, these are the lines in these big games where I see the largest edges in the market.

No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 2 Ohio State

(Ohio State -7.5, O/U 56.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Once again, The Big Game lives up to the name with some massive implications on the season. Whichever team wins this game will advance to the Big Ten Championship Game and have an inside track at a spot in the College Football Playoff. These two teams are both undefeated right now and are ranked second and third in SP+, so this should be a great game.

Ohio State comes into this game with one of the best offenses in college football. They are ranked fourth in SP+, eighth in success rate and first in points per opportunity. The Buckeyes have extraordinary athletes at every spot on the field, giving them a great multi-faceted offensive attack.

CJ Stroud should be one of the top few picks in next year’s draft and is currently the Heisman favorite. The Buckeyes rank third in passing success rate this season and first in passing PPA. They also have the 20^th-most explosive passing offense.

On the ground, TreVeyon Henderson is one of the best backs in the country but looked like he possibly could have been banged up last weekend in Ohio State’s close call against Maryland. The Buckeyes rank 16th in rushing success rate and 25th in rushing PPA.

Michigan has the No. 4 defense per SP+. They rank fifth in defensive success rate this season and are good against both the run and the pass, ranking fifth and third in success rate in those categories respectively. They are also very good at limiting explosive plays, so there is a good chance that Michigan could hold this explosive Buckeye offense in check.

The Wolverines’ offense may be the worst unit in this game, but that still doesn’t mean that they are bad. This unit is ranked 28th in SP+ but is 5th in offensive success rate this season. This is largely due to having one of the easier schedules in the Big Ten. Michigan had the second-easiest nonconference schedule this season and were able to dominate those lesser teams offensively.

Despite the success that this offense has had, they do struggle to create explosive plays. Michigan ranks 126th in passing explosiveness and 63rd in rushing explosiveness. Overall, the Wolverines are 122nd in explosiveness, which we have seen be an issue in games against teams that have good defenses, such as last weekend’s win against Illinois.

These two teams always play a very physical game, and I don’t expect this weekend to be any different. I think that in this rivalry game we will see both defenses show out and play a close game. I don’t have faith in Michigan’s offense at all and I do think that Michigan’s defense can slow down Ohio State, especially if TreVeyon Henderson is banged up. 

The Pick

Under 56.5 Points

No. 12 Oregon vs. No. 23 Oregon State

(Oregon -3, O/U 58, BetMGM)

It has been a while since this in-state rivalry had much meaning outside of the state, but Oregon and Oregon State will meet this weekend with some high stakes on the line. Oregon could punch their ticket to the Pac 12 Championship Game with either a win in this game or a Washington loss to Washington State. I’m sure that Dan Lanning and the Ducks would prefer to control their own destiny and take care of this win on their own.

Last weekend, the Ducks picked up a huge win over Utah. Utah got the better of Oregon twice last season en route to a conference championship, but that didn’t stop the Ducks from grinding out this win. Bo Nix was questionable coming into this game, but the Oregon defense was voracious and kept Utah uncomfortable all day. 

Oregon State has had an impressive season in their own right and find themselves ranked heading into this game. I think that the Ducks have a couple of advantages here though that make this a bad matchup for the Beavers.

Oregon State has a solid passing defense but leaves a bit to be desired against the run. They rank 86th in rushing success rate allowed and 112th in PPA allowed on the ground. The Beavers are also 103rd in rushing explosiveness allowed. On the other side, Oregon runs at the 45th highest rate in the country and they do it quite effectively. The Ducks rank first in rushing success rate and second in rushing PPA. This is a matchup that favors Oregon quite well.

Across the other side of the field, the way to attack Oregon’s defense is typically through the air. They rank 115th in success rate against the pass and 91st in PPA, but they are good at limiting explosive passing plays (31st). The Beavers lean into a run-heavy attack, rushing at the 17th highest rate in the country. This isn’t the best way to attack Oregon and if they do this on Saturday then they will likely struggle to move the ball.

While Oregon State has had an impressive season, Oregon just matches up very well against what the Beavers want to do. With the stakes on the line for the Ducks, I expect that they are able to go into Corvallis and come out with the easy win.

The Pick

Oregon -3