Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
This week has been a roller coaster of emotions in the college football betting scene, but I’ve dug in and found two parlays that I feel are worth jumping on with confidence. Each Friday, I will highlight my favorite parlays you can consider and the reasons why I favor them so much. These could be as simple as picking a side and the total of a single game or stringing together a couple of games into the same parlay.
Week 8 sees a condensed set of games with a handful of teams on bye but there are some soft lines we can make some money on. I’m excited to share with you some of my favorite parlays of the weekend.
Eastern Michigan vs. Bowling Green
Clemson vs. Pittsburgh
(Eastern Michigan -3, O/U 48.5; Pittsburgh -3, O/U 47.5; DraftKings Sportsbook)
Unfortunately, the EMU Eagles let us down last week losing by 7 at home against Ball State. Now they hit the road to face the 2-5 Bowling Green Falcons. The Falcons have struggled this season defensively and it has a lot to do with the fact that they are giving up a 42.5% conversion rate on third downs. Meanwhile, EMU is converting 46.2% of their third downs, 26th in college football. It’s clear EMU is going to be able to move the chains this weekend, and as long as their defense can even moderately show up they should be able to cover for us. EMU is 2-for-2 when going into a game as the moneyline favorites, and I’m happy to see them go 3-for-3 by the end of the day.
The Clemson offense is a shell of its former self this year. Some regression was expected with mainstays Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne moving to the NFL, but I don’t think anyone could have seen a total collapse of the offensive side of the ball. The Tiger defense has been semi elite at times, which has allowed the team to eke out recent wins over Boston College and Syracuse. Pittsburgh is a different animal though, and the Panther offense ranks inside the top 10 in multiple categories. The Tiger defense is ranked second in points allowed but it’s going to be a tough ask to hold this efficient offense under 28 points at their house.
Best Bet: EMU -3 (-120) and Pitt -3 (-115) — Combined +242
BYU vs. Washington State
UTSA vs. La Tech
(BYU -4.5, O/U 56.5; UTSA -6, O/U 60; DraftKings Sportsbook)
BYU was one of my featured bets earlier this week in my Monday betting preview. At the time they were around -3 to -3.5, so you can see that number has crept up a bit over the past few days. WSU has some drama around the program this week after the decision was made by the administration to fire Nick Rolovich and some of his staff for not following the state’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate. I see BYU coming into Pullman and taking care of business against a team that could be reeling from losing their coach. The steady play of RB Tyler Allgeier plus the recent emergence of FTN favorite Puka Nacua gives BYU the playmakers needed to come away with a cover.
UTSA is rolling this season with a 7-0 record and now hits the road for a conference battle against the 2-4 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. The Roadrunners are averaging 38.6 PPG, 13th best in college, and rank inside the top 50 in most offensive categories. UTSA has amassed a record of 6-1 ATS this season while the Bulldogs are 3-3 ATS. Breaking it down further the Roadrunners are 3-1 ATS when playing as at least 6-point favorites this year.
Best Bet: BYU -4.5 (-105) and UTSA -6 (-115) — Combined +265
