Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Week 9 of the college football season was solid, as the majority of our single bets and parlays cashed. This week offers some appealing spots to target, and I will highlight a couple of my favorites for you to take advantage of as well.
With only a few weeks left in the college football season, we need to take advantage of soft betting lines while we still can. Let’s dive into this week’s top parlays.
Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs
(Baylor -7, O/U 58, DraftKings Sportsbook)
DraftKings is offering a single-game parlay on this Big 12 contest, which is fantastic, since this happens to be one of my favorite games of Week 10. It also happens to be the game in which I’m most confident in picking the winner. TCU parted ways with longtime coach Gary Patterson and is expected to be without their starting QB Max Duggan, who suffered a serious injury last week. There is also talk of RB1 Zach Evans either being limited or missing the game entirely. This has disaster written all over it for TCU, and I really see no way that the Horned Frogs keep this one close.
Baylor is perfectly content with running the football via their 1-2 punch Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner, which allows their solid defense to rest up during long drives before coming back onto the field and just assaulting a bunch of probable backups. The TCU rush defense is giving up over 200 yards on the ground which means this could be a very long day. I’m all over the Baylor spread in this one and will be taking the under 58 as an offensive outburst from TCU seems highly unlikely at this point. With Baylor likely running the ball a ton, the under seems like a safe bet all around.
Best Bet: Baylor -7 (-110) and UNDER 58 (-105) — Combined +272
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ULM Warhawks vs. Texas State Bobcats
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
(ULM vs. Texas State O/U 59, SDSU vs. Hawaii O/U 45.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I highlighted the ULM/ Texas State Sun Belt game or Fun Belt if you’re so inclined in my betting preview article earlier this week. Both of these teams have bottom-of-the-barrel defenses that couldn’t catch a cold. That said, I think we see both teams score at will and cruise past a total of 60. The Warhawks are giving up 37.5 PPG while the Bobcats have given up 35.3.
We were all over the SDSU-Fresno State total last week, and the over hit for us without much of a sweat. DraftKings Sportsbook seems to be vastly underrating SDSU games lately, especially when the opponent isn’t great defensively but has a myriad of weapons on offense capable of racking up points. Seven of Hawaii’s games this season have ended with a combined score higher than 45.5 points. Meanwhile, Aztecs and their opponents have crossed that mark in four of their games this season. I’m going to ride the over in this one, and I fully expect both offenses to do enough to us there.
Best Bet: ULM-Texas State OVER 59 (-110) and SDSU-Hawaii OVER 45.5 (-110) — Combined +264
