Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Week 1 of the 2021 college football season. We have a smaller main slate of games, with five openers Saturday, four of which have lines, and therefore four we can make picks for.
(Check out our college football Week 1 betting breakdown.)
We’re continuing to preview the opening weekend as the sweet smell of fall football looms. One of the most profitable plays each week is to play the upsets. Week 1 is a dangerous time for big favorites. We often see uncomfortable winning margins as teams try to figure out their own identity or play youngsters.
We’ve ranked the four upsets available from least likely to most likely. We’re breaking these games down from the angle of how the upset could occur, and the trends that support the underdog.
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4. UConn at Fresno State (2 p.m. ET Saturday)
(Fresno State -27.5, O/U 62.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The least likely upset of the weekend has the largest line. While it’s not crazy to think Connecticut could come out after 18 months off and surprise Fresno State with a close game, winning is a different projection. The Huskies have been one of the most incompetent programs in the country even after Randy Edsall reclaimed the head coaching job in 2017.
The recipe for a Huskies upset is clear, though. Run the ball with stud back Kevin Mensah and good things will happen. A monstrous game on the ground combined with two or more turnovers can turn this game upside down.
UConn is +1800 to win, making the Huskies easily the top underdog of the week.
3. Hawaii at UCLA (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday)
(UCLA -18, O/U 68, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The highest-profile team in action Saturday is Chip Kelly’s UCLA Bruins. Expectations are starting to creep higher now that this program is more mature and has integrated several recruiting classes. Last year’s offensive growth was also a massive boon.
Hawaii should be thoroughly outclassed athletically in this game. They’re just +650 to win, though, as their run ‘n shoot offense matches up well against UCLA’s weak secondary. The veteran Rainbow Warriors’ offense has to be as efficient against superior athletes as they are against conference foes.
Turnovers are always key in upsets, but UCLA is vulnerable if the hype isn’t justified. Hawaii has a solid chance of covering this swelling spread, but an outright win would be shocking.
2. UTEP at New Mexico State (9:30 p.m. ET Saturday)
(UTEP -10, O/U 56.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
We’re now in the upset territory I like. New Mexico State missed most of the 2020 season and their form for 2021 is a complete unknown. Have they improved their key weaknesses?
The Aggies were poor on offense the last time we saw a full season due to interceptions, but this wasn’t a fully inept unit. The passing attack was moderately effective on short throws. The rushing game was actually dominant as Jason Huntley totaled almost 1,100 yards and a 7.1 yards per-carry average.
The defense, though, gave it back to opposing rushing offenses. Their foes averaged an insane 6.1 yards per carry. UTEP has their own talented back in Deion Hankins, and he’ll get the chance to replicate those numbers in this game.
New Mexico State is far from a bad value at +290 to win. They’re not that far behind UTEP overall but there’s more unknown about them.
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1. Nebraska at Illinois (1 p.m. ET Saturday)
(Nebraska -7, O/U 55, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Simply put, the last time we saw Nebraska face Illinois, they were blown out at home last November. It’s not crazy to think Scott Frost gets outclassed again. But circumstances are a little different as Nebraska is healthier and imported a ton of transfers to bolster the roster.
Illinois’ recipe remains the same. Bully opponents with a great ground game and try like hell to force turnovers to turn the tide. If the Fighting Illini get a decent passing output from Brandon Peters, they can absolutely steal their home opener.
Getting Illinois at +215 is an enticing price if you’re especially bullish on Peters and Bret Bielema, or bearish on Frost.
Get all my picks and other CFB handicappers with the FTN CFB Bet Tracker.
