College Football Betting Preview: Washington vs. Michigan State

Week 3 of the college football season doesn’t have many marquee games after an exciting Week 2. However, bettors will be looking to see how the No. 8 Washington Huskies play in their first road game this season as they head to East Lansing, Mich., to face the Michigan State Spartans (5 p.m. ET, Peacock).

The Huskies are 2-0 this season after defeating Boise State and Tulsa in dominating fashion at home. The Spartans are also 2-0, with home wins over Central Michigan and FCS team Richmond. However, this will be a tough test for QB Noah Kim and the Spartans, as head coach Mel Tucker will not be on the sidelines after being suspended last weekend.

Taking over for Tucker will be interim head coach Harlon Bennett and associate head coach Mark Dantonio, who retired in 2020 after being Michigan State’s head coach for 13 years. The Spartans are 16.5-point home underdogs against the Huskies, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Below we’ll break down this intriguing Pac-12/Big 10 contest and provide bettors with our best bet.

Washington vs. Michigan State

Spread: Washington -16.5 (-110); Michigan State +16.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Washington -800, Michigan State +550
Total: Over 55.5 (-110); Under 55.5 (-110)

To no one’s surprise, the Over/Under for the total has surpassed 50 points as both the Huskies and Spartans have lit up the scoreboard to start the 2023 season. Washington is producing 49.5 points per game and 565.5 total yards per game (sixth in the NCAA). The Huskies also have a tremendous passing offense in the country (472 yards per game), led by Heisman candidate Michael Penix Jr.

Through the first two games of this season, Penix has proven to the college football world that his first season at Washington was not a fluke. The 6-foot-3 QB is completing 73.1% of his passes for 859 yards, eight touchdowns, and an interception. After torching Boise State’s defense for 450 yards and five touchdowns in Week 1, Penix threw for 409 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception in last week’s 43-10 win over Tulsa.

The Golden Hurricanes’ defense had no answers for the Huskies’ offense as junior wide receiver Jalen McMillan led both teams with eight receptions for 120 yards and a touchdown. He’s been Washington’s top playmaker this year and is someone that the Spartans will have to keep in front of them Saturday afternoon.

However, the Spartans just can’t get stuck on stopping McMillan, as Washington also has Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk, who both scored touchdowns in last week’s blowout win over Tulsa. 

The Huskies have done a great job of using the passing game as an extension of the running game through two games as they lost starting running back Cameron Davis for the season. That said, Washington might want to run the ball Saturday, as Michigan State’s defense has only given up 107 passing yards per game this season.

Now granted, the Spartans played Central Michigan and Richmond to start the 2023 season, but they’ve also been able to pressure the QB with 10 sacks (third in the country). Penix has been sacked once this season, so it will be imperative for Michigan State to get into the backfield.

In addition to the defense, the Spartans will need Noah Kim to be sharp against a Huskies defense that allows 207 passing yards per game and opposing QBs to complete 50.6% of their passes this season. However, Kim has completed 67.9% of his passes for 571 yards, five TDs, and an interception through two games. The junior quarterback isn’t afraid to push the ball down the field and has a solid running game to back him up. 

Washington has allowed 153 rushing yards per game this season, so the Spartans need to get the ball to Nathan Carter, who has run for 100-plus yards in back-to-back games. The Huskies are 5-3 against the spread as double-digit favorites dating back to last season. Meanwhile, the Spartans were 1-1-2 ATS as double-digit underdogs. 

Washington will get Michigan State’s best shot early on, but I expect Penix and the rest of the Huskies to find a rhythm and put up points in East Lansing. Take Washington to cover the spread and stay undefeated.

Best Bet

Washington -16.5