Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Game one of the College Football playoff features the tremendous matchup of two national powers, as the No. 1 seed Michigan takes on fourth-seeded Alabama in the Rose Bowl. There are so many interesting aspects to this game, so let’s take a look at the opener of the CFP.
All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Michigan vs. Alabama
5 p.m. ET
Michigan -2
Alabama
Back in September, many wondered if Nick Saban lost his fastball as his team was 2-1 after beating South Florida 17-3 on the road. Since then, they rattled off wins over Tennessee, LSU and Georgia in impressive fashion. The funny thing is that if Auburn covers Isaiah Bond on 4th-and-goal from the 31 just a few weeks ago, then the Crimson Tide aren’t here. As expected, the team had minimal losses in the transfer portal with backup QB Tyler Buchner and WR Ja’Corey Brooks not available, with Brooks being out since Week 7.
Michigan
The Wolverines essentially passed their two tests in the month of November and coasted their way to this spot. Of course, they had to deal with the sign-stealing scandal and two separate stints without their head coach, but that seemingly brought them together even more embracing the villain role that America gave them. This squad rolled through most of their opponents with just three single-digit wins in 13 contests. They are essentially at full strength outside of losing OL Zak Zinter a few weeks ago.
Notes
The question for Michigan is are they ready for this contest considering the really easy schedule they just went through? It was a slate that saw them face no signal-callers with the mobility of Jalen Milroe, who has rushed for over 100 yards two times this season and has had multiple rushing TDs four times. Last year, they struggled with Max Duggan’s mobility in the playoffs, as he ran for two touchdowns. Keeping Milroe in the pocket and preventing him from throwing deep passes down the field are the ways to slow this offense down. Jalen has one of the best arms in America, while Michigan has one of the best secondaries, making this a fascinating matchup. I’m not too scared about Alabama’s ground game because I think Michigan can contain them.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama has allowed 124.5 rushing yards per game and 14 touchdowns. I don’t think the Wolverines can win just handing it to Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards a bunch of times. The loss of Zinter hurts them in that respect. To me, this game is on J.J. McCarthy, who has to play better than he has the last four contests. Is the ankle close to 100% with all of the time off, or is he still hampered by the injury? His mobility will keep Bama honest in the RPO. McCarthy also has to surpass the passing yard totals he’s had the last four games, as Quinn Ewers lit up Alabama in their only loss of the season.
The whole world is on Alabama it feels like because everyone wants to back Nick Saban especially as an underdog. His bowl record is tremendous at 16-6 overall. They also see the 1-6 record for Jim Harbaugh in bowls and want to go against him. My lean is to the underdog as well, but it’s not my official play. I’m going to look for some player props to attack in this matchup. The first one is over 17.5 receiving yards for Amari Niblack. The Alabama tight end has seven games where his longest reception alone has gone over this number. He’s gone under this just four times overall. If you look at Michigan’s defense, Tyler Warren, Cade Stover, Corey Dyches and Addison Ostrenga are frequent targets of their opponent, and most of them have surrendered receptions over this number as well. The other player prop I’m looking at is Jalen Milroe’s anytime touchdown because I think he’ll break out for a TD much like Duggan did last year.
Picks
Amari Niblack Over 17.5 receiving yards and Jalen Milroe ATD (+100)
