Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Before the college football season began, a matchup between Florida State and Georgia would have been thought of as a tremendous game. As we approach Saturday’s Orange Bowl, though, it’s not exactly what we thought it would be.
All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Georgia vs. Florida State
4 p.m. ET Saturday
Georgia -20
Georgia
The defending champions lost their last game to Alabama in the SEC championship and are now left to play in the Orange Bowl. Everyone is focusing on FSU’s exclusion, but the Bulldogs probably feel the same way as the Noles. The team has a lot of names in the transfer portal, but for the most part outside of Mekhi Mews, it’s a lot of guys who didn’t play a ton of snaps. The big question is if Brock Bowers will play and last we heard from the head coach he gave us a “We’ll see.” Of course things could change at the last minute, but we’re getting a pretty close to full strength roster.
Florida State
I believe Florida State should have made the CFP and an injury to the quarterback doesn’t change things for me, because that defense is definitely playoff level. Unfortunately, they didn’t make the playoff and now have a transfer portal/opt-out ravaged roster. Backup QB Tate Rodemaker, tackle Bless Harris and starting linebacker DJ Lundy are the biggest losses in the portal. Opting out of Saturday are WRs Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman, TE Jaheim Bell and RB Trey Benson on offense. The defense will be without starters Jared Verse (DE), Fabien Lovett (DT), Akeem Dent (S), Renardo Green (CB) and Jarrion Jones (CB).
Prediction
I could do this long writeup on the game, but it would be a waste of words. I will say that everyone is talking about how unfocused FSU will be, but there is a chance Georgia isn’t exactly at their best for this one. This number has flown up and is now 20 points, which I think may be a little bit too much. Georgia is 4-8 against the spread this season. I’m not saying to take the Seminoles because there’s a chance they are a complete no show, but laying 20 points in bowl season just isn’t in my repertoire as a gambler. This means that I have to find other ways to get involved in this game. The books are predicting around 31.5 points for the Bulldogs, but on Draftkings you can get them to score over 3.5 touchdowns at a reasonable juice. I’m going to involve myself with the other team’s total though.
The Pick
Florida State under 12.5 points (-125)
