College Football Betting Preview: Ohio State at Michigan

It’s the last week of the college football regular season, which means it’s time for Michigan and Ohio State with this year’s matchup taking place at Michigan Stadium. The stakes couldn’t be higher, as the winner gets a spot in the Big 10 title game against Iowa and the inside track to one of the four CFP spots for the postseason.

Let’s take a look at this contest and find some betting value.

All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Ohio State at Michigan

Noon ET
Michigan -3.5

Last Year’s Matchup

The Wolverines beat the Buckeyes 45-23 in Ohio last year, as they outscored their opponent 28-3 in the second half behind several explosive runs by Donovan Edwards. The two teams racked up over 1,000 yards of offense, but one of the many differences was the two turnovers Ohio State had to Michigan’s zero. Edwards had 22 carries for 216 yards and two touchdowns, while C.J. Stroud threw for 349 yards and two TDs in the loss.

Ohio State’s Season at a Glance

Both teams have had extremely easy schedules and have passed their few tests with flying colors. Back in Week 4, Ohio State went into South Bend and knocked off Notre Dame 17-14 behind a stout defense and an offense that did just enough. They also picked up a 20-12 victory over Penn State about a month later. Usually, we start with the Buckeyes offense, but Jim Knowles has done some amazing work with the defensive side of things. This squad is third in the nation holding opponents to 252.9 yards per game and is second allowing just 9.3 points per contest as well. We can’t forget about Marvin Harrison Jr. though, as he’s had a touchdown in seven straight contests and has an outside shot at a trip to New York for the Heisman ceremony.

Michigan’s Season at a Glance

This will be the third straight game without Jim Harbaugh for the Wolverines. Their year has truly come down to these last three games starting with a 24-15 win at Penn State Nov. 11 in which they ran the ball 32 straight times to get the victory. Last week, the Wolverines handled their business in a sandwich spot beating the Terps 31-24 in College Park. Michigan’s defense is No. 1 in both yards allowed (234.8) and points allowed (9.0). The Wolverines offense is a different story though. It seemingly has lacked the explosiveness they’ve had the past few seasons.

Breakdown

Two things stick out to me in this matchup. The first has to do with JJ McCarthy, who has not seemed like himself the last two weeks. He went 7-of-8 for 60 yards vs. Penn State and then followed it up with a 12-of-23 for 141 yards vs. Maryland. McCarthy really hasn’t had to win a game yet for the home team, and I have a feeling he’ll have to do so here. Will this offensive line hold up against a stiff Buckeyes pass rush as well? It seemed like the team was concerned with that in Happy Valley, and that’s why they ran it 32 straight times.

The other matchup to watch is Harrison vs. this Michigan secondary. We only have one previous matchup between these two to look at, and Harrison was very good despite the loss, tallying seven receptions for 120 yards and a touchdown. His partner out wide, Emeka Egbuka, actually outplayed him with nine receptions for 125 yards and a touchdown, so we’ll see how Michigan handles these two NFL-bound WRs. The Wolverines have allowed 144.8 yards per game through the air and just five touchdowns to 14 interceptions.

The dark cloud hanging over this game as well is the Michigan sign-stealing scandal. That makes this contest so much more personal for both teams, with accusations flying in both directions. I’m not a huge Kyle McCord fan and think he could struggle early on here. I actually think both teams could struggle early, which makes me look at the first-quarter or first-half under. Ohio State is No. 1 in first-half points allowed at 4.4, while Michigan is right behind them at 5.0. The past few years this series has produced some high-scoring contests, but I think these defenses won’t allow it. There may be an explosive play or two, but I think it’ll be a struggle for the most part early on.