Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 6 of the college football season features several tantalizing matchups, but we are going to focus on the battle of the Tigers. LSU takes on Missouri, and this has offensive shootout written all over it.
The Bayou Bengals were impressive on offense last week, as they scored 49 points. The problem was their defense got blasted by Ole Miss, and they ended up giving up a whopping 55 points. Missouri took care of business in Week 5 with a 38-21 victory over Vanderbilt.
I’ve looked at this game in-depth all week long as it’s one of the best environments for fantasy, and I’m confident we can find an angle to attack from a betting perspective as well. Let’s dig in.
Odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
LSU Tigers vs. Missouri Tigers
Spread: LSU -5.5 (-110), Missouri +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: LSU -230, Missouri +190
Total: Over 63.5 (-110), Under 63.5 (-110)
Jayden Daniels continues to shine as the signal caller of LSU, and it’s truly astonishing how well he has played since moving to the SEC. He threw for 414 yards in the loss to Ole Miss, the second straight game in which he tossed 4 touchdowns. The team is projected to score five touchdowns, and we can be sure that Daniels will be involved in all of them.
The LSU program has been blessed over the years with some truly elite talent at the receiver position. It was only four years ago when Justin Jefferson, Terrace Marshall and Ja’Marr Chase were torturing collegiate defenses together in this program. Fast forward to 2023, and it’s now Malik Nabers as well as Brian Thomas who are giving SEC opponents fits.
Nabers was a 1,000-yard receiver in 2022 and has continued his dominance into this year with 40 catches for 625 yards along with 5 touchdowns. Brian Thomas has followed in his teammates footsteps and is currently enjoying a breakout year himself. He has already scored 8 touchdowns through their first five games and has caught 33 passes for well over 500 yards.
For Missouri, it’s all about the Brady Cook-Luther Burden connection. Cook is quietly putting together a solid season as the quarterback of Missouri, and he has done it by avoiding trying to be a hero. What I mean by this is the fact that he makes solid throws and continues to put star wideout Burden in a position to succeed.
Cook is currently fourth in the SEC in passing yards and second in completion percentage at 74.47%. He also boasts an impressive 11 touchdown:0 interception ratio, and if he can keep playing relatively mistake-free football, Missouri will have a chance to win this game.
Nabers and Thomas are pure nightmare fuel for defensive coordinators, but we can’t forget about sophomore star Luther Burden in this game as well. He is leading the SEC in receiving yards (644) as well as receptions (43) and his draft stock is soaring through the first quarter of the season.
Missouri likes to line Burden up all over the field and they utilize a lot of motion in their playcalling to befuddle opposing defenses. This is bad news for LSU as they’ve really struggled this season to contain passing attacks that feature versatile weapons.
Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart picked this defense apart last week with 26-39 passing and nearly 400 yards along with 4 TDs. Tre Harris (8-153-1) and Jordan Watkins (5-103-1) were completely unstoppable.
KJ Jefferson of Arkansas threw for 289 yards/3 TDs, and his tight end Luke Hasz went for 6-116-2 the week before that.
You can also look back on Week 1 when the Florida State Seminoles hung 45 points on LSU and their mobile QB Jordan Travis threw for 342 yards/4 TDs. Wideouts Keon Coleman (9-122-3) and Johnny Wilson (7-104-0) went fully nuclear which seems to have set the tone for the season for this LSU secondary.
One thing I’m absolutely sure of is that the total in this game is going to sail over and both offenses are going to put on a show for all to see.
Best Bet
Over 63.5 Total Points
