Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The No. 14 LSU Tigers (6-2, 4-1) will look to defeat the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (7:45 p.m. ET) for the second straight season Saturday night (7:45 p.m. ET, CBS). This game has massive implications in the SEC West standings, as the Tigers are one game behind the Crimson Tide for first place.
When these two SEC West foes played each other last season, LSU defeated Alabama 32-31 in overtime in Baton Rouge, LA. Tigers dual-threat quarterback Jayden Daniels went head-to-head with Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young. Young completed 25-of-51 passes for 328 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
Meanwhile, Daniels compiled 277 total yards and three total touchdowns. The former Arizona State transfer will try to outduel Alabama QB Jalen Milroe, who has had his ups and downs in his first year starting, but the talent is there. Milroe is completing 65.7% of his passes for 1,617 yards, 13 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He also has 142 rushing yards and five TDs.
The Tigers are three-point road underdogs heading into Saturday’s matchup in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Can LSU keep their SEC Championship hopes alive? Or will Milroe show the country that he can take this Crimson Tide team to the next level?
Below, we’ll break down this blockbuster SEC West division matchup and provide our best bets for one of the best games on the Week 10 slate.
Odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
LSU vs. Alabama
Spread: LSU +3 (-108); Alabama -3 (-112)
Moneyline: LSU +124; Alabama -148
Total: Over 61.5 (-112); Under 61.5 (-108)
Heading into this season, LSU had goals of winning the SEC and playing in the College Football Playoff. However, their CFP dreams quickly faded as they suffered two Top-25 losses to Florida State and Ole Miss.
But since their loss to Ole Miss Sept. 30, the Tigers have ripped off three straight wins over Missouri, Auburn, and Army. Over that three-game stretch, LSU won by an average of 34 points and scored 53 points per game. Brian Kelly’s crew will try to carry that momentum on the road, where they are 2-1 on the season.
For the Tigers to come away with the win, they’ll need to protect Daniels from this Crimson Tide defense that has 30 sacks on the season. The good news for LSU is that Daniels is one of the best dual-threat QBs in the country. He has 521 rushing yards and has received 10 or more carries in six out of eight games this season.
If Daniels can extend plays out of the pocket and pick up positive yards on this Bama defense, it will slow down their pass rush. It will also open up the passing game for Malik Nabers – one of the best wide receivers in college football.
As for Alabama, they will try to take advantage of an LSU secondary that is missing a couple of key members. LSU’s pass defense is allowing 238.5 passing yards per game this season (10th in the SEC).
Milroe has played well in conference play this season, completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,168 yards, eight touchdowns, and three interceptions. The sophomore quarterback is also averaging 10.8 yards per pass attempt, which is higher than his season YPA (10.6). If he gets some time in the pocket, he has two good receivers (Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond) who can make big plays in the passing game.
The Crimson Tide also have to take advantage of the Tigers’ run defense, which is less than stellar and could be their Achilles’ heel. LSU is giving up 156.5 rushing yards per game this season. Jase McClellan is capable of having a big game, as we saw last week against the Volunteers – 115 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries.
Alabama had a few close calls last month against Tennessee and Arkansas, but they prevailed in the end. Nonetheless, they cannot start slow Saturday, because this LSU team has shown they can score points in bunches.
The Crimson Tide are 2-1 against the spread vs. ranked opponents this season but 3-2 ATS as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 1-2 ATS against ranked opponents. Saturday night’s game will be must-see TV as the Tide looks to declaw the Tigers. However, LSU showed last season they can play with Alabama. You could also say that last year’s team was more talented with Young than this year’s squad. Therefore, I’ll lay the points with the Tigers on the road.
Best Bet: LSU +3 (-108)
