Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 5 of the college football season has four top-25 matchups, including the No. 24-ranked Kansas Jayhawks heading to Austin to play the No. 3-ranked Texas Longhorns (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
Both teams enter Saturday afternoon’s matchup undefeated and 1-0 in conference play. The only other team undefeated in Big 12 is the Oklahoma Sooners, who the Longhorns will play next week. When these two Big 12 foes faced off against each other last season, Texas won 55-14. The Jayhawks’ defense had no answer for Bijan Robinson, who had 243 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 24 carries.
The good news for Kansas is that Robinson is now in the NFL, but the Longhorns’ offense is still formidable thanks to Quinn Ewers. The 6-foot-2 quarterback has completed 64.3% of his passes for 1,033 yards, nine touchdowns, and zero interceptions. However, do not sleep on Kansas QB Jalon Daniels. Daniels is one of the better dual-threat signal callers in college football this season.
This season, he’s completing 74.7% of his passes for 705 yards, five touchdowns, and an interception. The junior QB also has produced 74 rushing yards through three games. If you like good quarterback play, this is the game to watch. The Longhorns are 16.5-point home favorites against the Jayhawks, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Below we’ll break down this action-packed Big 12 battle and provide bettors with our best bet.
All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kansas vs. Texas
Spread: Kansas +16.5 (-110);Texas -16.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Kansas +600; Texas -900
Total: Over 61 (-112);Under 61 (-108)
It doesn’t come as a surprise to see Texas as home favorites, especially with how they’ve played this season. However, 16.5 points is a lot against a Jayhawks team that has been battle-tested over the years and has a veteran QB under center.
Kansas opened up Big 12 play last weekend with a 38-27 home win over BYU. The Jayhawks’ defense struggled against the pass, allowing BYU QB Kedon Slovis to throw for 357 yards and two touchdowns. However, the Jayhawks’ defense stood tall against the run (nine rushing yards allowed) and created three takeaways (two interceptions), which led to 14 points.
Kansas head coach Lance Leipold will hope his defense can create some pressure against Ewers, who was sacked three times in last week’s win over Baylor. The Jayhawks’ defense only has 11 sacks on the season, which is good for fifth in the Big 12.
Kansas’ defense will also look to shut down the Longhorns’ running game, which had 175 yards and four scores on the ground last week. But we don’t expect either defense to get gashed on the ground Saturday.
Ewers has the better weapons at the skill position, as WR Xavier Worthy and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders are playmakers. Sanders currently leads Texas in receiving yards (268), while Worthy leads the team in receptions (19) and tied for first in touchdowns (3).
If the Jayhawks can limit big plays to Worthy and Sanders, they will give themselves an excellent chance to pull off the upset. At the same time, Kansas’ offense must be at its A-game against an excellent Longhorns defense. This season, Texas is giving up 211.3 passing yards per game and has forced six interceptions.
Therefore, it will be imperative for Daniels to make the correct read and have time in the pocket, as the Longhorns’ defense has racked up 13 sacks. The junior quarterback didn’t play badly when these two teams met up last season (17/26 for 230 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT), which is something bettors can lean on heading into Saturday.
Saturday’s game should be a great litmus to see where the two teams stand as conference play continues. Bettors should not expect another blowout between these two teams, as Kansas’ defense has improved (22.7 points per game allowed) from last season. The Longhorns are 4-3 against the spread as double-digit favorites since last season. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks are 2-2 ATS as double-digit underdogs.
Best Bet
Kansas +16.5
