Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A spot in the college football playoff is on the line in Atlanta as Georgia takes on Alabama. I guess there are even scenarios where both teams get in with a UGA loss, but most likely only one of these squads will be in the CFP. It’s been two years since the last meeting occurred, so we’ll see what happens Saturday.
All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Georgia vs. Alabama
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
4 p.m. ET
Georgia -5.5 O/U 54.5
Last Meeting
The Bulldogs beat the Crimson Tide 33-18 in the national title game two seasons ago as Georgia got revenge for an SEC title game loss to Alabama. The first half featured five field goals between the two teams and a 9-6 lead for Alabama. The Bulldogs found the end zone four times in the second half, including scoring the last three TDs in the fourth quarter. Alabama outgained UGA by 25 in the contest, with Bryce Young doing most of the damage. He threw for 369 yards but had two interceptions while Stetson Bennett had two touchdown passes.
Georgia’s Season at a Glance
The Bulldogs got the first four weeks of the season to work on some things as they began the year with a home-friendly stretch. UGA destroyed Kentucky, Ole Miss and Tennessee to go along with a close win at home over Missouri. Carson Beck has filled in nicely for Bennett under center with almost 3,500 yards passing and 22 touchdowns to only six interceptions. He’s only been sacked eight times total, so the pocket has been pretty clean for the signal caller. The WR corps had a chance to grow a little during the time that Brock Bowers was out with an injury. The defense isn’t last year’s version, but they’ve been very good as a group.
Alabama’s Season at a Glance
The Crimson Tide began the season 1-1 after a Week 2 loss to Texas. That was followed up with an uninspiring win at South Florida 17-3. As the year went along there were close calls against Texas A&M and Arkansas. Jalen Milroe had an amazing year with 2,526 yards passing and 439 yards rushing combining for 33 touchdowns overall. This is not the star-studded team of the past, but they are just solid across the board. 13 different players have registered sacks while seven guys have interceptions for the defense as well. The depth on this roster is very impressive.
This Matchup
These are the best defenses Georgia and Alabama have faced all season. Also of note, Ladd McConkey, Rara Thomas, Brock Bowers and Tate Ratledge all missed the game last week vs. Georgia Tech and are questionable for this one. Even if they go, who knows how close to 100% they will be. On the other side RB Jase McClellan is out for the Crimson Tide. Neither of these squads is all that fast offensively with Alabama checking in at 27.7 seconds per play while Georgia is at 29.4. The Bulldogs have been a little bit of a slow starting team being tied or losing at halftime in half of their 12 games so far this season. My lean in this contest is with Nick Saban’s team. It’s not my strongest play of the weekend though. Yes, Georgia has been fantastic this season overall, but with their injuries and Alabama’s defense, I think the Crimson Tide can cover the spread.
The Pick
Alabama +5.5
