NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The Fort Worth Bowl could be one of the best non-playoff contests in the coming weeks. as James Madison takes on Air Force down in Fort Worth. There are a lot of circumstances surrounding this bowl game, but appearances may not be what they seem. Let’s delve into this matchup and find a winner.
All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Armed Forces Bowl
3:30 p.m. ET Dec. 23
James Madison -2.5 vs. Air Force
James Madison
What a wild year it’s been for the Dukes, who were arguably the best G5 team all season but nearly didn’t go bowling if all of the slots were filled by 6-6 or better teams. The Dukes had College Gameday on their campus for a third time and then proceeded to pick up their only loss as Appalachian State spoiled the party. Everyone was talking about this program because of what they were doing and then the postseason hit. Coach Curt Cignetti took most of his staff to Indiana leaving the team with few coaches to prepare for this matchup. Normally this would be a huge red flag, but OL coach Damien Wroblewski brought in five temporary assistant coaches who had experience with the triple option to help out, which is huge when getting ready to play the Falcons. You may also notice a long list of guys in the transfer portal but outside of Mikail Kamara and OL Carter Miller, the rest are playing in this contest and are excited to do so. That means the likes of Jordan McCloud and Elijah Sarratt stuck around to finish off this historical season for the team out of Harrisonburg.
Air Force
The Falcons won their first eight games but then finished the season off with four straight losses as injuries at quarterback and other positions took their toll. Information is not as plentiful coming out of this side of the contest, but it looks like QB Zac Larrier and WRs Dane Kinamon and Jared Roznos will all return. Larrier ran the triple option really well to go along with a defense that was spectacular early on but saw some cracks late. This team has been really good in bowl games the past few years.
Prediction
If this was a normal week four game, I’d pick James Madison in a heartbeat because they are the better team. To me, there are two ways this contest goes. The first is that the Dukes ignore all the distractions, play like a team for one last time together and win this 35-20. The other way is that despite saying all the right things, it’s just too much to handle what they’ve gone through, and Air Force runs away from a distracted JMU squad. I’ve had several players on my radio show, and they’ve all said the right things, but doing it on the field is different. Air Force is No. 2 on the ground averaging 275.8 yards per contest while JMU is #1 allowing just 61.5 yards rushing. They haven’t seen an attack like this though.
Ultimately, I like the Dukes in the first half to come out with a solid plan for the triple option and a solid script of offensive plays. My worry for JMU is at halftime when Troy Calhoun makes his adjustments. That’s not to say that the Dukes will fail in the second half, but their coaching staff will be at a disadvantage there. Give me James Madison in the first half with a potential live bet on Air Force at halftime depending on injuries and the score.
The Pick
James Madison first-half moneyline (-120), followed by a live bet on Air Force at halftime
