Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
College football’s bowl season is in full swing, and with late scratches as well as opt-out news pouring in, things are about to get wild. I’ll be updating this piece all bowl season with my favorite parlays. Let’s check it out.
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Nevada Wolfpack
Boston College Eagles vs. East Carolina Pirates
(WMU -7, O/U 56.5; BC -3, O/U 51.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Quick Lane Bowl features two dynamic offenses however some of the shine has rubbed off with the news that Nevada will be missing some key players. This is a great opportunity for the Broncos to win a bowl game for just the second time in school history. Nevada QB Carson Strong has declared for the draft and will not play while their head coach has taken a job with Colorado State. They’ll also be without their stud tight end Cole Turner (declared), wideout Melquan Stovall (transferred), mega star Romeo Doubs (declared) and Tory Horton (transferred) as well as productive WR Justin Lockhart (transferred). This is so much production missing that it’s hard to imagine the Wolfpack will have the continuity on offense to keep up with a Broncos team that averaged over 30 points per game and pushed nearly 500 YPG.
A few of us (myself included) expected Boston College to challenge for the ACC title this year, but a plethora of injuries derailed those plans, and they’ll have to settle for a date with ECU in the Military Bowl. QB Phil Jurkovec has plans to return for another year and should be the healthiest he has been all year heading into this matchup. They will likely also have stud tight end Trae Barry back in the mix, a kid that several SEC teams were clamoring for while he was in the portal last Summer. ECU plays a zone defense which will leave them vulnerable to giving up big plays against this highly athletic group of wideouts. If the defensive backs end up “on an island” as they say, guys like Zay Flowers and Jaelen Gill will make them pay. At the end of the day, BC has more athletes than ECU and I see them using this Bowl game as a springboard into next season to build back up last summer’s hype.
Best Bet: WMU ML and Boston College -3 — Combined +171
Air Force Falcons vs. Louisville Cardinals
(Louisville -1.5, O/U 55)
This should be a fun game to watch as well as put our hard-earned money on. Even though Air Force will run the triple option that is known for milking the clock, I believe we will see this game turn into a high-scoring affair. It’s worth mentioning that the total is roughly 8 points lower than the two teams’ combined average of 62.9 points per game. Dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham has had a big year, throwing for over 2,700 yards and 18 TDs to just 6 INTs. However, he does most of his damage on the ground where he has rushed for 968 yards and 19 scores. The Air Force defense has been relatively stout this season, but they haven’t had to face too many weapons like Cunningham. Utah State (448 passing yards/5 TDs from 2 QBs) and Nevada (351/4 TDs for Carson Strong) both had success, which tells me Cunningham can lead the Cards to victory with a big game. The Air Force defensive numbers are a bet skewed because of the weak schedule they’ve had to play in conference. I will be betting this one as a same-game parlay, which allows me to get a favorable number.
Best Bet: Single-game parlay: Louisville -1.5 and OVER 55 — Combined +272
