College Football Betting: Big 12 Conference Preview

With Week 1 of the 2023 college football season a little over a month away, it’s a great time to look at the latest odds for the Big 12 conference.

2023 Big 12 Conference Odds

Here are the updated odds for which team will win the Big 12 Championship Game this upcoming season, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Texas (+105)
Oklahoma (+340)
Kansas State (+500)
Texas Tech (+1200)
TCU (+1600)
Baylor (+1800)
UCF (+3500)
Kansas (+3500)
Oklahoma State (+4000)
BYU (+8000)
Iowa State (+8000)
Cincinnati (+12000)
West Virginia (+15000)
Houston (+20000)

Longhorns favorite to win revamped Big 12 Conference

After finishing last season in third place in the Big 12 (8-5), the Longhorns are surprisingly the favorites (+105) to win the conference this season over defending champion TCU. Last year, Texas saw Hudson Card and Quinn Ewers take snaps under center. Ewers struggled at various points in his first season with the Longhorns but finished the 2022 season strong in the Alamo Bowl.

The 6-foot-2 quarterback completed 58.1% of his passes for 2,177 yards, 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Ewers and freshman quarterback Arch Manning battled for the starting job in the offseason, with Ewers winning the competition. If the Southlake, Texas, native plays like how he did in the Alamo Bowl (31/47 for 369 yards and a touchdown) against Washington last season, the Longhorns could be in the College Football Playoff convo. Ewers has a quality wide receiver in Xavier Worthy, who played with a broken hand last season but still amassed 60 receptions for 760 yards and nine touchdowns. Head coach Steve Sarkisian will be leaning on his passing game as the Longhorns work to replace their outstanding running back duo in Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, who both graduated to the NFL.

However, Ewers and the offense won’t have to do it alone, as Texas has a solid defense, which returns six starters from last season. The Longhorns’ defense allowed 21.6 points per game (28th in the country), ranking them third in the conference behind Iowa State (20.3) and Kansas State (20.1). Texas has a favorable schedule this season, despite playing Alabama on the road in Week 2. They will also play Baylor, TCU, and Iowa State on the road. But that shouldn’t be a major issue for Texas, as they went 3-0 against them last season. Finally, the Longhorns will see new Big 12 members Houston and BYU this season, who are longshots to win the conference.

Golden Knights looking to make a statement in their first year in Big 12

The Big 12 welcomed four new teams into the conference at the beginning of July in UCF, BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston. The Golden Knights had the third-best record in the AAC (9-5) last season under head coach Gus Malzahn. It will be challenging for Malzahn and Co. to finish within the top five of the conference this season, especially with Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Kansas State. However, they have an underrated quarterback in John Rhys Plumlee, who can give opposing defenses a lot of issues.

Last season, Plumlee completed 63 percent of his passes for 2,586 yards, 14 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He also ran for 862 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. UCF will need Plumlee’s dual-threat ability as they will begin conference play Sept. 23 on the road against Kansas State. Defensively, the Golden Knights allowed 23.6 points per game last season (46th in the NCAA), and opposing quarterbacks completed 59 percent of their passes (52nd in the country). Additionally, UCF’s defense has six starters returning from last year’s team, which is fantastic news as they start a new chapter in the Big 12.

Oklahoma, Kansas State among contenders to win Pac-12 title game

Even though the Longhorns are the betting favorites to win the conference this season, the Sooners and Wildcats could shock the college football world and be Big 12 champs after the dust settles. Kansas State is coming off a great 2022 season, where they went 10-4 and 7-2 inside the conference.

The Wildcats lost stud running back Deuce Vaughn to the NFL but still have QB Will Howard, who completed 59.8% of his passes for 1,633 yards, 15 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Howard has seen his completion percentage improve over the past three years, which is an excellent sign for Kansas State’s offense and head coach Chris Kleiman.

However, for the Wildcats to go over their win total (7.5) this season, they will need their defense to duplicate their production from last season. Kansas State allowed 21.9 points per game (29th in the country) and ranked second in the Big 12 in sacks (28). The Wildcats lost defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah to the NFL, who had 8.5 sacks last season. But they still have Brendan Mott, Khalid Duke and Austin Moore, who will look to get after the quarterback and force some turnovers, which was a strength for Kansas State in 2022.

As for Oklahoma, things went south quickly for first-year head coach Brent Venables last year as the Sooners went 6-7 and 3-6 in the Big 12. Venables saw his defense get hammered weekly, allowing 30 points per game, which negated the positives from an Oklahoma offense that scored 32.8 points per game.

The Sooners hope for better days this season as they have Dillon Gabriel back under center for the second-straight year. The former UCF standout completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 3,168 yards, 25 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He also had 315 yards on the ground and six touchdowns. Gabriel will look for a new target in the passing game this season, with Marvin Mims heading to the NFL. College football fans should watch out for Jalil Farooq, who had 37 receptions for 466 yards and 5 touchdowns last year. Gabriel spoke highly about Farooq and the rest of Oklahoma’s wide receiver unit at Big 12 media days as they try to replace Mims’ production.

Best Bets for the Big 12 Conference

For bettors looking for a best bet to place before the regular season kicks off, they should take Kansas over 5.5 wins (-144, FanDuel Sportsbook).

We usually don’t like to take juiced win total bets but with Kansas’ win totals all over the place – O/U 6 at DraftKings (-125) and O/U 6.5 at BetMGM (+145), we will be safe and jump on the 5.5 wins at FD. The Jayhawks were one of the best surprise stories in college football last season, as they won at least six games for the first time since 2008 (8-5). Head coach Lance Leopold had Kansas playing exciting football, scoring 35.6 points per game (21st in the country), with a dynamic QB duo in Jalon Daniels and Jason Bean. For the Jayhawks to take that next step this season, their defense must drastically improve after giving up 35.5 points per game in 2022. However, Leopold has 17 starters on both sides returning from last year’s squad, which gives them some momentum to at least hit six wins.