Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
It was another solid week of college football betting, and we actually went 4-0 on our featured bets. Another Kansas game flew over the total and Clemson took care of business against lowly FSU while we swept our prop picks.
As we move past the midway point of the season, we are dialing in and have another pair of featured picks that I would consider to be advantageous. Let’s get into it.
Boise State vs. Hawaii
(Boise State -20.5, O/U 61, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Ashton Jeanty show has been fun to watch thus far, and he is off to a legendary start to the season. The FBS record for rushing yards in a season is 2,628, which is held by Barry Sanders. It happened in 1988 when he played for the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
In that record-breaking season, Sanders rushed for 1,002 yards through five games on 130 carries and Jeanty is actually slightly ahead of this pace with 1,031 yards on just 95 carries in the same timeframe. As long as the Broncos have Jeanty around, they’re going to score points, lots of points. But they’re not a one-dimensional team by any means, as QB Maddux Madsen has thrown for nearly 1,100 yards and 10 TDs to just 2 INTs. Four different Boise State receivers have surpassed the 100-yard receiving mark.
The Broncos have gone over the Vegas total in every game so far this season and they’re primed to do it once again.
Hawaii’s defense has been better than most people expected and their leader at QB has been rock solid. Brayden Schager has thrown for 1,328 yards and 11 TDs while also rushing for 96 yards/2 TDs. He has a strong group of receivers in Pofele Ashlock (40-428-4), Dekel Crowdus (11-216-1) and Nicholas Cenacle (22-209-3).
The Pick
Over 61 Total Points (-112)
San Jose State vs. Colorado State
(SJSU -1.5, O/U 55.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Spartans have an impressive amount of talent on offense with QB Emmett Brown (1,460 passing yards, 15 TDs), RB Floyd Chalk (273 rushing yards) and stud WR Nick Nash (55-712-9). In fact, Nash has better stats through 5 games than a lot of players get in a full season.
They’re facing a Colorado State team that is giving up over 30 PPG to their opponents and over 250 YPG through the air. I expect their secondary to struggle badly against the Spartans offense all game long.
San Jose State’s defense has been stout against the pass but hasn’t fared as well against the run game. The Rams have the duo of Avery Morrow (390 yard) and Justin Marshall (323 yards) to take advantage of this weakness, and we are certainly looking at a competitive MWC matchup.
Ultimately, I am trusting the Spartans here against a Colorado State team that has a bigger bark than bite and far too many offensive weapons for them to contain.
The Pick
San Jose State -1.5 (-108)
