College Football Best Bets of the Week: Week 6

We went 2-0 in our college football best bets last week, as BYU easily handled Baylor on the road and the TCU-Kansas game turned into a shootout as expected. This brings our season record to 8-4 overall on featured picks.

We are moving toward the midway point of the season already, but there are still plenty of opportunities left for us to build our bankroll, and I have two more advantageous bets for us to target in Week 6. Let’s get into it.

Kansas vs. Arizona State

(ASU -3.5, O/U 49.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Kansas-TCU game played out exactly the way we wanted it to when we slammed the over 59.5, and we are going right back to the well with the Jayhawks. They have now given up 30-plus points in back-to-back games, and things won’t get any easier against Arizona State.

Only one of the Sun Devils games have gone over the Vegas total, but it’s worth noting that all of them have surpassed the current 50 points. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels has had his struggles, but he can still be dangerous due to his dual-threat skills and ASU struggled against the lone mobile QB they’ve faced this season. Texas State’s Jordan McCloud threw for 268 yards/4 TDs and rushed for just under 50 yards in a game that hit 59 total points.

The Jayhawks defense was dissected by Josh Hoover last week as he threw for 356 yards and 3 TDs. In the game prior to that, West Virginia’s Garrett Greene flummoxed the defense due to his dual-threat nature of play. He threw for 295 yards and rushed for 87 while scoring 3 total touchdowns (2 passing/1 rushing). These were two very different quarterbacks but neither of them had any issue leading drives and putting points on the board.

ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt falls somewhere in between the two as a mediocre passer but an upper tier runner. He has thrown for 855 yards/3 TDs but rushed for 180 yards/4 TDs. There is also the matter of dealing with elite RB Cam Skattebo. He has rushed for 433 yards and 5 scores while producing 13-190-0 as a pass-catcher. Simply put, the current iteration of the Kansas defense has little hope of containing him.

I truly believe this total is 3-5 points too low, and the FTN Model agrees as it’s giving us a 5.79% edge on the over.

The Pick

Over 49.5 Total Points (-110)

Clemson vs. Florida State

(Clemson -14.5, O/U 48, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This one seems way too easy, and I try to be careful with games like that, but these are two teams going in completely different directions thus making it hard to ignore. Florida State’s season hasn’t gone according to plan and at 1-4, their dreams of making the CFP are obviously dead, but they may not even make a bowl game at this rate.

Head coach Mike Norvell has decided to bench DJ Uiagalelei in favor of Brock Glenn, which he hopes will spark the offense. I’m not sure it’s going to matter though, and yet another embarrassing loss appears to be on the horizon.

The Tigers are 3-1 and have looked incredible since suffering a Week 1 blowout loss to Georgia. Cade Klubnik looks like a completely different QB this season and this offense has been taking no prisoners. He has thrown for 984 yards and 12 TDs with a completion rate of 66.4%. He also eclipsed 100 rushing yards and another 4 scores on the ground.

The Seminoles defense will also have to contend with Phil Mafah (342 rushing yards) and a receiving room that features Antonio Williams (16-196-3), Jake Briningstool (14-163-3) and freshman gamebreaker Bryant Wesco (7-238-2). Unless the Tigers come into this one flat and uninspired, I simply can’t see this matchup remaining competitive for more than a half.

The Pick

Clemson -14.5 (-108)