College Football Best Bets of the Week: Week 5

It was another 1-1 week of college football betting after the Miami Hurricanes mowed down South Florida, but unfortunately Northern Illinois couldn’t overcome the “hangover” from beating Notre Dame, which led to a last second loss to Buffalo.

Let’s look at our best bets for Week 5

BYU vs. Baylor

(Baylor -3, O/U 45.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The BYU Cougars are coming off a convincing home win over Kansas State in which they held the Cats to just 9 points. The defense came up with 3 takeaways and kept a typically electric Avery Johnson in check. To further drive home the point that BYU’s defense is a legitimate problem, we can look back to Week 2 when they only gave up 15 points to the SMU Mustangs. They just dropped 66 points on TCU over the weekend.

Despite having multiple injuries to their RBs, the BYU offense has produced 30-plus points in three of their first four games, which means this team is far more complete than we all expected them to be.

Baylor just suffered a disappointing loss to the Colorado Buffaloes and their defense completely collapsed in the second half before ultimately gassing out in overtime when the Travis Hunter show took over.

Junior quarterback Sawyer Robertson showed off his athleticism against Colorado and will at least make the Baylor offense respectable while Dequan Finn deals with a rib injury. They have depth in the RB room, and someone will have to step up as the BYU pass defense is only giving up 132.8 YPG thus far.

BYU QB Jake Retzlaff has thrown for 990 yards and 9 TDs while also rushing for 103 yards which leads the team. The receiver room is the finally healthy for the first time in years which has helped with Ratzlaff’s success through the first quarter of the season. His top weapons are Chase Roberts (17-310-1) and Darius Lassiter (8-115-2).

You have to love the way BYU is playing right now, and I am backing them on the road to win this game outright.

The Pick

BYU ML (+136)

TCU vs. Kansas

(Kansas -2, O/U 59.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This matchup shapes to be a possible shootout, as both offenses have a variety of explosive options. TCU has given up 27-plus points in three of their first four games, which includes a recent loss to SMU in which they allowed them to score 66.

The Jayhawks defense has been far better, but they aren’t exactly the steel curtain either. West Virginia just beat them 32-28, and they’ve really struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks. Garrett Greene threw for 295 yards/2 TDs while Matthew Sluka ran all over them for 124 yards on the ground. TCU QB Josh Hoover isn’t exactly a mobile QB, but he is capable with his legs when necessary and he has been fantastic as a passer, racking up over 1,400 yards and 11 TDs. His completion rate is pushing 70%, which is quite efficient when you consider the fact he has attempted 40-plus passes in three different games so far.

Jack Bech (25-513-4) is enjoying a breakout campaign while Savion Wiliams (23-244-3), Eric McAlister (12-222-2) and JP Richardson (16-190-0) have been the epitome of consistency. Opposing defenses can’t possibly cover them all which has led to some video game-esque numbers in the early going.

The Kansas offense is averaging over 28 PPG with dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels at the helm. The key to their success is the running game and Devin Neal has been his typical productive self. He has rushed for 443 yards and 3 TDs while backup Daniel Hishaw has racked up 177 yards and 2 TDs himself. They have a combined YPC of 6.4 and the Horned Frogs have little chance of slowing them down.

Brashard Smith (127 yards/3 TDs) and RJ Harvey (180 yards/3 TDs) have decimated the TCU defensive front so it’s no secret that Kansas will be feeding their star back. The continuity between Daniels and his receivers shouldn’t be overlooked though as they’ve been together for over two years at this point. Luke Grimm (23-229-3) and Lawrence Arnold (12-177-1) give the team even more ways to score points.

The total in this matchup is about 3-4 points too low and I’m confident that both offenses will be putting up a lot of points this weekend.