Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
It was another solid week of college football, as we walked both of our featured bets to the window. Pittsburgh needed some second-half heroics and the total in the Vols-Wolfpack cashed by a half point. We will take it, though.
We roll into Week 3 with several favorable spots to target. I will be highlighting my favorite college games to bet on and directing you to the site with the best line. Let’s get into it.
Florida International vs. Florida Atlantic
(FAU -5.5, O/U 43, DraftKings Sportsbook)
FAU head coach Tom Herman has been somewhat of an offensive maestro throughout his career and had real success at Houston and Texas. It’s because of his past success that makes me scratch my head at his 4-10 mark since taking over the Owls last year. They’re off to a poor start in 2024, being outscored 40-17 by their opponents.
Marshall transfer QB Cam Fancher has been fine with his mobility but has struggled with his accuracy, which has made it easy for the defenses of Michigan State and Army to tee off. The Owls’ talent pool has taken a hit due to transfers and this season is shaping up to be a true rebuilding effort.
Conversely, there is far more excitement about the FIU Panthers program, and that’s at least partially due to the fact that Pitbull acquired the naming rights to their stadium. They bounced back from a 31-7 loss to Indiana by walloping Central Michigan by a final score of 52-16.
Dual threat QB Keyone Jenkins’ versatility is going to be a real problem for FAU and the Panthers should have no issues taking advantage of their rush defense. Spartans’ QB Aidan Chiles rushed for 30 yards and a score while Army’s signal caller Bryson Dailey racked up 117 yards on the ground.
Granted, Army is a rush-heavy team, but everyone knows that, and FAU still couldn’t do anything to stop it. Jenkins was able to rush for 42 yards and a score on just 5 carries in the blowout and, he was adequate as a passer with 124 yards/2 TDs.
Furthermore, the Panthers have a deep group of running backs that can all get it done when given the rock. Shomani Lawrence, Kejon Owens and Lexington Joseph ensure a fresh ball carrier will always be in the game, thus softening an already suspect defense.
This game opened at -6 and has already moved to -5.5. I would be surprised if it didn’t move even further by kickoff. The FIU spread is easily one of my favorite bets of the week and I’ll also be sprinkling the moneyline.
The Pick
Florida International +5.5 (-110)
South Florida vs. Southern Miss
(South Florida -11.5, O/U 58, Caesars)
Don’t be fooled by the 42-16 loss that the Bulls suffered this past weekend against Alabama. They were in this game deep into the third quarter before the wheels fell off and Jalen Milroe took over. This is a good South Florida football team that has a sharp defense and an electric mobile quarterback.
Byrum Brown threw for only 103 yards but he was unstoppable on the ground as he racked up over 100 yards there. The strength of this team is their ability to run the football, and they’re loaded in the RB room. Kelley Joiner, Ta’Ron Keith and Nay’Quan Wright form a sneaky good committee backfield.
The passing game will obviously have to improve, and they have a gamebreaker in wide receiver Sean Atkins, a player that posted a 92-1054-7 stat line in 2023. Byrum Brown threw for over 3,200 yards last year with 26 TDs to 11 INTs so he is far from a one-dimensional player and this offense will catch up to their defense at some point. When it does, watch out for this program.
Southern Miss got rocked by Kentucky in Week 1 by a score of 31-0 and then beat a listless FCS squad 35-10 in Week 2. That loss to Kentucky is especially concerning since the Wildcats only scored 6 points in a loss to South Carolina a few days ago.
The Pick
South Florida -11.5 (-110)
