Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We are in the home stretch of the season, and the College Football Playoff race is heating up. Week 12 offers us plenty of opportunities to pad our bankroll and there are two bets in particular that I’m going to attack. Let’s get into it.
Kansas vs. BYU
(BYU -3, O/U 55.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
We have a great game on tap between the Kansas Jayhawks and the BYU Cougars in the late-night window. BYU has been a profitable team for us to bet on all year long, and I absolutely love the spot for them once again. The battle tested Cougars are sitting at 9-0 and are in prime position to make the expanded playoff field.
BYU’s success can be attributed to a bend, don’t break style defense and an offensive unit that makes plays when they have to. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff is a great leader and was able to lead the Cougars to a win over Utah despite not having his best game. A healthy LJ Martin in the backfield has given this offense even more diversity and he has racked up 425 yards/5 TDs in 6 games. Since returning from injury, he has been one of the best backs in the Big 12. Darius Lassiter (35-550-4) and Chase Roberts (37-588-4) give Retzlaff reliable targets as well.
BYU was caught off guard a bit by Utah and they did a nice job of taking away Retzlaff’s rushing ability. However, the Cougars overcame early issues and pulled away late which has been their calling card.
Kansas is fresh off a 45-36 victory over Iowa State and now they’ll be going up against another difficult opponent. The Jayhawks program had been trending up over the past couple of years but are currently 3-6 and on the outside looking in when it comes to bowl eligibility. Dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels and elite RB Devin Neal form a potent duo in the running game which will test the BYU defense. If there was a weak point with the Cougars it would be their defense against the ground game.
BYU’s been flirting with disaster in a similar fashion to Miami but unlike the Hurricanes they’ll keep their unbeaten season alive for yet another week.
The Pick
BYU -3
Florida International vs. Jacksonville State
(Jacksonville State -14, O/U 58, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Gamecocks of Jacksonville state are currently 5-0 in C-USA play and 6-3 overall. A spot in the C-USA title game is a very real possibility for a team that has become extremely entertaining to watch. They put together a late comeback win in overtime over Louisiana Tech by a score of 44-37 and they did so on the back of their elite running game.
Tre Stewart was one of the best transfer portal finds of the offseason and Rich Rodriguez has leaned heavily on the former D2 star. He racked up another 166 yards against Tech and has now eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark while scoring a whopping 18 total touchdowns. They’ll be facing FIU at home, and this is a matchup that the team can fully exploit with their electric running game. FIU has given up nearly 200 YPG on the ground so they’ll certainly have their work cut out for them.
Mobile QB Tyler Huff has thrown for 1,701 yards while rushing for 826 and scoring 19 touchdowns (10 passing/9 rushing). Say what you will about Rich Rodriguez, but he has a knack for finding talent and an even better ability to get the most out of his players.
FIU has been involved in a ton of close games this year but are riding high after beating up on New Mexico State by a score of 34-13. QB Keyone Jenkins has improved dramatically as the season goes on and he has a star at the receiver position in Eric Rivers which has only further helped his development. Rivers has caught 43 passes for 876 yards and 8 touchdowns through nine games.
Ultimately, there should be a lot of scoring in this one and FIU will have their chances, but the Gamecocks will be able to control things with their unstoppable rushing attack on their way to winning by multiple scores.
The Pick
Jacksonville State -14
