Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The college football offseason is over, and in addition to covering DFS, I will be releasing a weekly betting article. The purpose of this writeup is to highlight some of my favorite college football games to bet on, give you my reasoning for picking said game and direct you to the site with the best line.
(All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators
(Miami -2.5, O/U 54)
I have been all over the Hurricanes leading up to the season and have futures on them winning the ACC as well as making the CFB playoff. It would make sense that I’d be rolling with them to start the season off right against a program going in the opposite direction.
Gators head coach Billy Napier is firmly on the hot seat after underwhelming the last couple of years. This is a home game for Florida and the crowd noise will surely play a factor, especially with the new headset communication rules in place this year.
However, the Hurricanes roster is loaded on both sides of the ball, and this a chance for head coach Mario Cristobal to silence his naysayers.
New QB Cam Ward has legitimate Heisman hype after racking up nearly 7,000 passing yards and 61 total touchdowns (48 passing/13 rushing) in two years with Washington State.
He has an elite tailback behind him in Oregon State transfer Damien Martinez (1,100 rushing yards in 2023) that the Gators D has to account for as well as one of the most talented receiver rooms in the country. Xavier Restrepo (85-1,092-6), Jacolby George (57-864-8) and Houston transfer Samuel Brown (62-815-3) will be giving opposing secondaries nightmares this season.
Best Bet
Miami -2.5 (-112)
Western Carolina Catamounts vs. NC State Wolfpack
(NC State -32.5, O/U 61)
The Wolfpack are a sneaky good team in the ACC that is being overlooked by many in the industry. They’ve got a bona fide star in Kevin Concepcion, a multi-dimensional receiver who is capable of taking it to the house on any given play. The QB play was erratic last year, but Coastal Carolina transfer Grayson McCall comes in to replace outgoing Brennan Armstrong. McCall has had sustained success for a long time and will look to end his collegiate career with a bang as the leader of the Pack.
Western Carolina has an excellent passer of their own in Cole Gonzalez but will be working with a new offensive coordinator after Kade Bell took the same job with Pittsburgh. An opportunistic defense will be looking to take advantage of the Catamounts passing attack and inevitably it may be tough for them to generate much on offense.
I’m expecting an array of explosive plays from the Pack, but ultimately a big second half cushion will lead to a lot of running the football. This is a high total for an expected blowout, and I’m backing the under confidently.
Best Bet
Under 61 Total Points (-110)
