College Football Best Bets of the Week: Week 0

The college football offseason is over, and in addition to covering DFS, I will be releasing a weekly betting article. The purpose of this writeup is to highlight some of my favorite college football games to bet on, give you my reasoning for picking said game and direct you to the site with the best line.

Montana State Bobcats vs. New Mexico Lobos

(Montana State -12.5, O/U 54, DraftKings Sportsbook)

I am a big proponent of team continuity, which is something the Bobcats have plenty of at important positions. That said, this is a straight-up disrespectful line for a home FBS team against an FCS team. Granted, this is clearly a year 0 situation for Bronco Mendenhall, the experienced first year coach for the Lobos. Meanwhile, the Bobcats will be an upper echelon team in FCS this year, so they’re two teams on different trajectories this year. But still, I can’t get over this line and simply have to take the Lobos and the points here at home.

The Lobos have an intriguing dual-threat prospect at QB in Devon Dampier, and he is capable of single-handedly making this a close game. He racked up over 300 rushing yards while completing 62.5% of his passes for 525 yards as the primary backup to the far less efficient Dylan Hopkins. 

The Bobcats have an identity as an elite rushing team and are typically led by former Wisconsin transfer Julius Davis, but he will be out for a few weeks due to an injury. Instead, the team will rely on Scottre Humphrey and their own dual-threat QB, Tommy Mellott. 

At this point, it certainly wouldn’t shock me if the Bobcats pulled off the victory, but I’m simply not buying the fact that they’ll do it by double-digits. Give me the home team and the electric Devon Dampier to cover.

Best Bet

New Mexico +12.5 (-110)

SMU Mustangs vs. Nevada Wolfpack

(SMU -25, O/U 56, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Wolfpack have a coaching staff that I really trust and foresee them being far more competitive than people expect this season. That said, this is a tough matchup for them against newly minted ACC squad SMU. 

SMU is extremely deep at just about every position and possesses a level of continuity that makes other programs jealous. They will be led by Preston Stone at QB after he threw for over 3,000 yards a year ago. They still have a stable of running backs despite losing Camar Wheaton for the season to a knee injury. The trio of Brashard Smith, Jaylan Knighton and LJ Johnson will be a problem for most opposing defenses.

Their receiver depth is legendary as they return a group that featured eight different players eclipsing 300 receiving yards. The line and defense will be more than adequate as well, which is why many around the industry are crowning the Mustangs as a sleeper team in the ACC.

This is a game that screams blowout and the SMU staff has already said they’ll be getting their backup QB Kevin Jennings plenty of run in this one. With backups in the second half and an emphasis on running the football, the pace should slow down significantly as the game goes on.

With that said, the edge lies with SMU and the first-half spread of -13.5. The Mustangs starting offense will be looking to make a statement as they enter the ACC, and we should see a level of efficiency that leads to multiple first half touchdowns. 

The Mustangs ranked seventh in first-half scoring last year at 22 PPG and should be near the top of college football in that category once again. This is a game that I don’t want to worry about late and will happily walk to the window at half time instead.

Best Bets

SMU -13.5 First-Half Spread (-122)